RB Touch Points Data Study : the Fantasy Fellowship

<— return to 2023 Playbook

In this data study, we are using Scott Barrett’s data that shows that RB carries are worth roughly .62 fantasy points and targets are worth 1.57 fantasy points in Full PPR leagues. You can view his tweet below.

My biggest pet peeve is when a fantasy analyst measures a RB's volume by "touches" rather than "weighted opportunity"

Why? Because a target is worth 2.5 times(!) as much as a carry in PPR leagueshttps://t.co/W4gneNj4kk pic.twitter.com/sHavFDiBe3
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) June 29, 2023

The biggest takeaway here is that a single RB Target in Full PPR leagues is worth nearly 2.5x more points than a single rushing attempt. What I’d like to do now is show you how the numbers looked using last years RB stats, and then at the bottom of this article you will find my 2023 RB Projections using Touch Points. You will find a strong correlation to where the RB finished in final PPR points. The formula used is Rush Attempts = .62pts and Targets = 1.57pts.

Check out my video analysis of this article on YouTube here.

2022 Touch Points: RB1s 1-12

		Player	PPR Finish	RuAtt	Targets	Touches	Touch Points
1	LAC	Austin Ekeler	RB1	204	127	331	325.87
2	LV	Josh Jacobs	RB2	340	64	404	311.28
3	NYG	Saquon Barkley	RB4	295	76	371	302.22
4	TEN	Derrick Henry	RB3	349	41	390	280.75
5	NE	Rhamondre Stevenson	RB7	210	88	298	268.36
6	NO	Alvin Kamara	RB16	223	77	300	259.15
7	PIT	Najee Harris	RB14	272	53	325	251.85
8	MIN	Dalvin Cook	RB9	264	56	320	251.6
9	CIN	Joe Mixon	RB10	210	75	285	247.95
10	TB	Leonard Fournette	RB12	189	83	272	247.49
11	CLE	Nick Chubb	RB5	302	37	339	245.33
12	GB	Aaron Jones	RB6	213	72	285	245.1

RuAtt = .62pts and Targets = 1.57pts

Takeaways:

Ten of the top 12 RBs in Touch Points finished as Top 12 RBs. The only two outliers here are Alvin Kamara (RB16) and Najee Harris (RB14). Both of these guys were inefficient with their touches, but both ended up being decent RB2s.

There was a total of 849 targets from the top 12 RBs, an average of 70.75 per RB.

There was a total of 3,071 rushing attempts from the top 12 RBs, an average of 255.92 per RB.

These numbers of 255.92 rushing attempts and 70.75 targets can be used as RB1 thresholds. Add those together and you get an average 326.67 total touches per RB.

Only 5 RBs went over the 326.67 touch threshold, and guess what. They ALL FINISHED AS TOP 5 RBs.

If I take the other 7 RBs who were under the 326.67 touch threshold, I get an average of 297.85 touches. Any RB projected around 300 touches should be considered a threat to finish as a Top 12 RB.

Target RBs projected for 300+ touches as your RB1, and Elite RBs with 327+ touches as Top 5 RBs.

2022 Touch Points: RB2s 13-24

		Player	PPR Finish	RuAtt	Targets	Touches	Touch Points
13	JAX	Travis Etienne	RB17	220	45	265	207.05
14	DAL	Tony Pollard	RB8	193	55	248	206.01
15	ARI	James Conner	RB19	183	58	241	204.52
16	PHI	Miles Sanders	RB15	259	26	285	201.4
17	SF	Christian McCaffrey	RB11	159	65	224	200.63
18	HOU	Dameon Pierce	RB27	220	39	259	197.63
19	SEA	Kenneth Walker III	RB18	228	35	263	196.31
20	BUF	Devin Singletary	RB24	177	52	229	191.38
21	DET	Jamaal Williams	RB13	262	16	278	187.56
22	CHI	David Montgomery	RB23	201	40	241	187.42
23	WAS	Antonio Gibson	RB28	149	58	207	183.44
24	GB	AJ Dillon	RB26	186	43	229	182.83

RuAtt = .62pts and Targets = 1.57pts

Takeaways:

21 of the Top 24 RBs in Touch Points finished as Top 24 RBs. The only three outliers here are Dameon Pierce (RB27), Antonio Gibson (RB28) and AJ Dillon (RB26).

There was a total of 532 targets for RBs 13-24, an average of 44.33 per RB.

There was a total of 2,437 rushing attempts for RBs 13-24, an average of 203.08 per RB.

These numbers of 203 rushing attempts and 44 targets can be used as RB2 thresholds. Add those together and you get an average 247 total touches per RB.

19 RBs went over the 247 total touches and all of them finished as Top 24 RBs except for Dameon Pierce, who was RB27 on 259 touches.

Target RBs projected for roughly 250+ total touches as your RB2.

2022 Touch Points: RB3s 25-36

		Player	PPR Finish	RuAtt	Targets	Touches	Touch Points
25	IND	Jonathan Taylor	RB31	192	40	232	181.84
26	DAL	Ezekiel Elliott	RB22	231	23	254	179.33
27	MIA	Raheem Mostert	RB25	181	42	223	178.16
28	DET	D’Andre Swift	RB21	99	70	169	171.28
29	TB	Rachaad White	RB34	129	58	187	171.04
30	ATL	Tyler Allgeier	RB29	210	17	227	156.89
31	KC	Jerick McKinnon	RB20	72	71	143	156.11
32	NYJ	Michael Carter	RB39	114	54	168	155.46
33	DEN	Latavius Murray	RB35	160	34	194	152.58
34	WAS	Brian Robinson Jr.	RB43	205	12	217	145.94
35	CLE	Kareem Hunt	RB38	123	44	167	145.34
36	LAR	Cam Akers	RB33	188	18	206	144.82

Takeaways:

33 of the top 36 RBs in Touch Points finished as Top 36 RBs. The only three outliers here are Michael Carter (RB39), Brian Robinson Jr. (Rb43) and Kareem Hunt (RB38).

There was a total of 483 targets from RBs 25-36, an average of 40.25 per RB.

There was a total of 1,904 rushing attempts from RBs 25-36, an average of 158.66 per RB.

These numbers of 158.66 rushing attempts and 40.25 targets can be used as RB3 thresholds. Add those together and you get an average 198.92 total touches per RB.

31 RBs went over the 198 touch threshold last year, and all of them finished as Top 36 RBs.

Target RBs projected for 200+ total touches as RB3s and up.

Final thresholds:

RB1 (elite) 327+ touches

RB1 300+ touches

RB2 250+ touches

RB3 200+ touches

2023 Projected PPR Touch Points:

Rank		Player	Rank	RuAtt	Targets	Touches	PPR Touch Pts.
1	LAC	Austin Ekeler	RB1	195	115	310	301.45
2	NYG	Saquon Barkley	RB6	290	75	365	297.55
3	SF	Christian McCaffrey	RB2	225	90	315	280.8
4	ATL	Bijan Robinson	RB3	305	50	355	267.6
5	TEN	Derrick Henry	RB7	325	42	367	267.44
6	LV	Josh Jacobs	RB8	285	55	340	263.05
7	DAL	Tony Pollard	RB4	255	65	320	260.15
8	CLE	Nick Chubb	RB5	295	45	340	253.55
9	CIN	Joe Mixon	RB11	225	70	295	249.4
10	ARI	James Conner	RB16	245	60	305	246.1
11	TB	Rachaad White	RB24	195	75	270	238.65
12	NE	Rhamondre Stevenson	RB10	205	70	275	237
13	HOU	Dameon Pierce	RB12	255	50	305	236.6
14	PIT	Najee Harris	RB15	255	50	305	236.6
15	CAR	Miles Sanders	RB17	225	55	280	225.85
16	IND	Jonathan Taylor	RB13	255	40	295	220.9
17	DET	Jahmyr Gibbs	RB9	128	90	218	220.66
18	LAR	Cam Akers	RB18	240	45	285	219.45
19	GB	Aaron Jones	RB14	190	64	254	218.28
20	MIN	Alexander Mattison	RB21	225	47	272	213.29
21	JAX	Travis Etienne	RB19	215	50	265	211.8
22	DET	David Montgomery	RB20	245	35	280	206.85
23	SEA	Kenneth Walker III	RB22	235	35	270	200.65
24	BUF	James Cook	RB25	160	60	220	193.4
25	WAS	Antonio Gibson	RB27	120	75	195	192.15
26	DEN	Javonte Williams	RB28	175	50	225	187
27	BAL	JK Dobbins	RB23	212	35	247	186.39
28	NO	Alvin Kamara	RB29	140	63	203	185.71
29	WAS	Brian Robinson	RB32	230	25	255	181.85
30	GB	AJ Dillon	RB31	185	40	225	177.5
31	NYJ	Breece Hall	RB26	165	45	210	172.95
32	DEN	Samaje Perine	RB34	150	40	190	155.8
33	KC	Isiah Pacheco	RB30	200	20	220	155.4
34	PHI	D’Andre Swift	RB33	130	45	175	151.25
35	MIA	Raheem Mostert	RB35	155	30	185	143.2
36	NYJ	Dalvin Cook?	RB36	145	32	177	140.14
37	CHI	Khalil Herbert	RB37	170	20	190	136.8
38	PIT	Jaylen Warren	RB39	105	40	145	127.9
39	TEN	Tyjae Spears	RB40	85	40	125	115.5
40	KC	Jerick McKinnon	RB38	45	55	100	114.25
41	LAC	Joshua Kelley	RB	100	30	130	109.1
42	MIA	De’Von Achane	RB45	90	33	123	107.61
43	MIA	Jeff Wilson Jr.	RB43	115	23	138	107.41
44	HOU	Devin Singletary	RB	95	30	125	106
45	BUF	Damien Harris	RB41	110	23	133	104.31
46	CHI	D’Onta Foreman	RB48	115	20	135	102.7
47	NO	Jamaal Williams	RB42	110	20	130	99.6
48	PHI	Rashaad Penny	RB44	135	10	145	99.4
49	CLE	Jerome Ford	RB49	95	25	120	98.15
50	SEA	Zach Charbonnet	RB50	95	25	120	98.15