Over/Under Valued @ ADP (FFCalc)

I was asked to write up some blurbs on players by Footballguys.com that I thought were Over Valued and Under Valued in PPR ADP using fantasyfootballcalculator.com. They asked me to choose 3 Over Values, 3 Under Values and to Plant 1 Flag on a player that I feel the strongest about, all within 75 words per player. I decided to make a larger list of players so that I could whittle it down to submit my favorites for each category. FBG will be posting an article with my 7 blurbs amongst a few other upcoming fantasy analyst’s as a round table article. I will post that article here when it is ready.

For now, here are my top over valued and under valued players at ADP using FFCalculator.

Over Valued Players @ ADP:

James Robinson 44.2 (4th Round)

JRob was a transcendent UDFA last year, finishing as the RB7 in 14 games on a 1-15 team. He now has to overcome a new college head coach, Urban Meyer, who traded up for Travis Etienne in the first round. “ETN” has been working heavily as a WR in OTA’s and will not only cut into JRob’s receiving role, but compete for carries as well. I like JRob, but not this early.

Raheem Mostert 50.4 (5th Round)

We love a healthy Raheem Mostert, but he has not shown us that he can handle an RB1 workload. The 49ers moved up in the 3rd Round to select Trey Sermon, who’s gotten the majority of reps with the 1s in June while Mostert is limited. He’s like a Ferrari and cannot sustain any damage to fulfill his 5th round ADP, so target WRs or a QB in his range or wait for Sermon instead.

Adam Thielen 49.0 (5th Round)

An efficient Adam Thielen in 2020 finished as WR10, boosted by 14 TDs.  He’s the #2 target in a run heavy offense, but is trusted by his QB in the Red Zone. He could be a nice WR3 in 2021, but I’m not excited about drafting a 31yr old WR at the Top of the 5th round with guaranteed TD regression. There’s too many other upside WRs in this range or a few rounds later.

Mark Andrews 52.3 (5th Round)

Andrews was TE6 last year but needed an injury to Nick Boyle to fully thrive. He posted 5 games below 7 PPR points and 3 TE1 games before Boyle’s injury. With Boyle back and Sammy Watkins plus Rashod Bateman added this offseason, this potentially spreads out targets and snaps in Baltimore. Andrews is TD dependent and too boom-bust to trust in Round 5. Pay up for Kyle Pitts or take Hockenson Round 6.

Melvin Gordon 56.5 (5th Round)

The writing was on the wall when Denver traded up to select Javonte Williams with the 35th overall pick. Gordon scored 10 TDs and finished as RB13 last year, but also lost 4 fumbles and posted a woeful 4.9ypc on 32 receptions. Javonte will eat into Gordon’s carries and passing down work and should eventually overtake Gordon as the lead back this year, making his 5th round ADP too rich for me.

Travis Etienne 60.3 (6th Round)

The 1st Round rookie RB is being drafted as the RB28 at the start of the 6th Round. He will fare well in PPR leagues by season’s end, but I’m finding it hard to trust him to smash his ADP and be more than a Flex PPR back this season.  As long as James Robinson is healthy, it will be difficult to start Etienne every week.  There are wiser 6th round options to consider.

Under Valued Players @ ADP:

DJ Moore 62.5 (6th Round)

Moore finished as WR25 last season, recording a career high 1,193 receiving yards with Teddy Bridgewater, all while learning a new offensive system.  Curtis Samuel (WR23) is gone, potentially putting more short area routes back on DJ Moore’s plate in 2021. His 6th round ADP seems to be a full round behind his value as a solid WR2+. Even with Sam Darnold, expect more from DJ Moore (and Robby Anderson).

Damien Harris 76.2 (7th Round)

Harris is locked into the starting role entering his 3rd season and presents some nice value at ADP, especially if and when Mac Jones is the starting QB.  Harris would be the primary goal-line back with a Jones-led offense and could see a slight boost in the passing game now that Rex Burkhead is out of town. At RB33 off the board, this reflects his floor value with his ceiling yet to be determined.

James Conner 82.3 (7th Round)

Conner, age 26, signed a 1yr 1.75mil contract with the Cardinals to replace Kenyan Drake, who finished as RB15 last season. Chase Edmonds remains the passing down back with Conner stepping right into Drake’s role as the lead back, which yielded 239 rushing attempts last year.  A whopping 58 of those came within the Red Zone, with Drake scoring 9 TDs within the 5yd line. Expect Conner to thrive in this role.

Tyler Boyd 85.5 (8th Round)

Boyd is coming off the board as WR34 in the 7th round of PPR drafts. He’s been a Top 30 PPR WR for 3 straight seasons and offers consistent WR3 production as his floor. He was averaging a career best 16.26ppg last year through the first 9 games, but fell off the map after the injury to Burrow. He’ll lead the team in receptions and should be on your radar in the 7th round.

Robby Anderson 88.7 (8th Round)

Much like DJ Moore, Robby Anderson’s price tag is too cheap for a Top 24 WR. We’re getting the WR20 in 2020 at a discount of WR36 this year. He’s reunited with Sam Darnold in an offense that actually figured out how to use him correctly.  With Curtis Samuel out of the picture, I find it easy to see Robby posting similar targets/yards/receptions and more TDs in 2021. He’s a Round 7 gem.

Michael Gallup 131.7 (10th Round)

Gallup is the cheapest of the Dallas WR trio by a mile. He posted 59rec, 843yds, 5TDs with Andy Dalton to finish as the WR38 and currently is the WR52 off the board. OTA reports are buzzing about Gallup finally being moved around the field and inside, which should boost his target and receptions totals and make him more consistent. A 10th Round pick is way too low for a potential 1,000yd WR.

Flag Planting:

Antonio Gibson 16.5 (2nd Round)

The OTA buzz around Gibson was very loud, suggesting growth in his game and potential for more passes thrown his way.  We know he’s a gifted WR, but we were guessing on his development as a runner, and 2020 showed that he’s the real deal. He was RB14 in just 14 games, and is the 12th RB off the board in 2021. A Top 5 RB ceiling is very real.

Darren Waller 22.6 (2nd Round)

It’s hard to ignore Waller’s monster 2nd half of 2020, where he averaged 22.93ppg and saw double digit targets in 4 of those 7 games. He had new career highs in targets, receptions, yards and TDs last year – it feels like he’s just getting started.  If you can’t get Kelce in the 1st Round, Waller is the TE you want at the end of Round 2. He might outscore Kelce in 2021.

Russell Wilson 65.8 (6th Round)

My favorite Wilson stat: he’s started 16 games in all 9 years of his career: Mr. Consistency.  When drafting QBs, I target one outside of the Top 5 that could crash it, and this year it’s Russ.  He has Metcalf, Lockett, Carson, Gerald Everett, Will Dissly and some interesting youngsters to throw the ball to this year. Don’t forget that he was the lead MVP candidate through the first 9 weeks last year – I won’t.

Blake Jarwin 163.3 (14th Round)

Jarwin returns from a Week 1 ACL tear and steps right into the TE1 role that helped Dalton Schultz finish as TE10 in PPR last year. That’s with 11 starts from Andy Dalton. There’s more than enough targets to go around in this offense, with Jarwin getting the least attention from opposing defenses. He is free in drafts as the 25th TE off the board and can flirt with a Top 10 finish in PPR.

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