My favorite QB to target in drafts currently. Wilson sits outside of the Top 5 QBs in ADP and has a great probability of finishing as Top 5 QB. New offensive coordinator Shane Waldron has been getting rave reviews from his players and it sounds like things will be a little more loose in Seattle this year. With weapons like DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, D’Wayne Eskridge, Gerald Everett, Will Dissly and Chris Carson, I really like Wilson’s chances of delivering another great fantasy season. Also note that he has never missed a game in his 9 years.
If you are drafting best ball league’s right now, Rodgers is the perfect low risk high reward QB option. We should know very soon what his plans are, so by late August fantasy draft season, Rodgers’ ADP could very well be as high as QB4/5. I am currently drafting as if he will return to GB and play as a Top 5 QB. If he indeed plays for GB, this lifts all Packer ADPs and makes Davante Adams and Aaron Jones great values at current ADPs.
A Top 10 QB last season and now gets to throw to Julio Jones instead of Corey Davis. Tannehill has an ADP outside of the Top 10 QBs and presents a nice value as your QB1. If you play Superflex, he is the ideal QB2 for you. Even if you play in 1 QB leagues, you can draft Tannehill late and pair him with your favorite upside QB2.
Stafford is being drafted outside of the Top 10 QBs and has a great chance to crash the Top 10 this season. He was QB15 last year without Kenny Golladay for most of it and now gets to throw to his best set of weapons of his career. The idea of getting Stafford late and pairing him with a solid QB2 seems to be a really safe play, very similar to Tannehill.
My favorite QB value, Kirk Cousins. He finished as QB11 last year and QB16 in 2019, yet is being drafted outside of the Top 20 QBs. He is a fantastic late round QB2 option and very attractive in Superflex leagues. The man threw a career high 35 TDs last season and the Vikings offense is set to grow and build on what it did in 2020.
He costs a mid 1st Round pick, so why is he a value? I can see Elliott outscoring some of the names going before him if this Dallas offense really is as special as we think it is. We only have to look at what Elliott did in his first 5 games of 2020 with a healthy Dak to realize this. He scored 22.74 PPR points per game in this stretch, which would have been 3rd Best for RBs. I love this upside in the mid first and don’t see much downside, as he finished as the RB9 last year.
Gibson in the 2nd Round could be like stealing candy from a baby. The WR turned RB finished as the RB14 last year in just 14 games and is currently being drafted as RB14-16, depending on which platform you use. We should expect the Washington offense to be better in 2021 with Ryan Fitzpatrick, as well as more work from Gibson in the passing game. His upside is completely unknown and it would not surprise me to see him finish as Top 5 RB in PPR this year.
JK scored 16.28 PPR points per game from Weeks 11-17. He currently goes in the third round amongst a bunch of WRs. Only 14 WRs scored more points per game last year than this 16.28 sample, making me interested in Dobbins as my RB2 or even as your RB3 if you elect to go 3 straight RBs to start your draft. We should expect more work in the passing game this year, perhaps vaulting JK into a higher PPR Points per Game total.
Davis was a league winning FA pickup last year and now gets his chance to be the main guy in Atlanta. Arthur Smith is the new coach and should bring a more run focused approach to this offense than we’ve seen in the past. The combination of Red Zone work plus receptions should give Davis a really nice floor each week as your RB2/Flex. If you decided to wait until the 5th round or so, Davis has all of the makings of a Top 20 RB in PPR.
Currently drafted outside of the Top 30 RBs, Conner presents league winning upside in the 8th/9th Round. He inherits Kenyan Drake’s role as the primary runner in an exciting offense. Drake racked up 239 carries and 25 receptions last year, but most importantly, earned 21 carries inside the 5 yard line and converted 9 of them for TDs. Conner is on a one year deal and is looking to secure one more contract after this one. Chase Edmonds will be used as the passing down back but has not proven that he can be the main guy and dominate the touches. Expect Conner to lead the team and touches and flirt with double digit rushing TDs.
DJ Moore + Robby Anderson:
Much will be made about Sam Darnold this year, but I’m finding it hard to ignore the duo of DJ Moore and Robby Anderson. Both finished as Top 25 WRs in PPR last year, and that’s with Curtis Samuel also finishing as a Top 25 WR. There’s more than enough to go around now that Curtis is in Washington. They drafted Terrace Marshall Jr. to compete as the #3 WR this year, but he is likely to lineup as an outside WR, perhaps pushing DJ Moore into the slot and run some of the Curtis Samuel type routes. DJ is being drafted in the mid to late 4th Round and Robby Anderson even later in the 6th and sometimes 7th Round. Robby is the best value of the two, but I really like both.
You want to draft a Dallas piece this season, and Gallup presents the greatest value of the bunch. He finished as WR38 last year and is being drafted outside the Top 36 currently. There have been OTA reports of Gallup lining up all over the field, which is a huge deal because he has been strictly limited to being an outside boundary WR during his first three seasons. Gallup in the slot a little more should increase his receptions total and boost his weekly PPR floor. Again, he was WR38 last year with Andy Dalton and now gets his MVP caliber QB back. Expect Gallup to smash his ADP and flirt with WR2 numbers.
A healthy Courtland Sutton in 2021 is very exciting. He was a favorite sleeper pick last year and now finds himself at an even better ADP with perhaps an even better QB in Teddy Bridgewater. Again, Bridgewater helped 3 WRs finish as Top 25 WRs in PPR last year, and Sutton should be the primary option in this offense. You can draft him as your WR3 or 4 and potential get WR2 numbers out of him. He’s an ideal draft target if you start your draft with a heavy RB approach early.
AB returns to Tampa Bay and will look to build off of his solid 2020 finish. He averaged 14.6 PPR points per game last year, which was 23rd best among WRs. Antonio Brown makes me nervous to draft Godwin and Evans in the 4th round because it wouldn’t surprise me to see AB finish with 1,000 yards and 8-10 TDs in 2021. Brady loves him. He’s being drafted outside of the Top 40 WRs and presents the greatest value of all WRs for me right now. You need to schedule an 8th or 9th round pick on AB. He could be a WR2 this year.
If you miss on one of the Top Tight Ends, Fant is my favorite target to secure as my TE1. He finished as TE11 in PPR last year, which is impressive considering all of the QB trouble Denver had last year. If Teddy Bridgewater wins the job, Fant is likely set for a career high in receptions, yards and TDs. Teddy lifted 3 WRs in Carolina last year to finish as Top 25 WRs in PPR. He’s steady and takes what the defense gives him, which should be an open Noah Fant.
Thomas came out of nowhere last year to finish as the TE4 in PPR leagues. He’s being drafted around TE8 and provides a safe and stable TE1 option. Ryan Fitzpatrick should boost his yards per catch and could be his favorite target within the Red Zone. If you want to grab Thomas, consider grabbing another TE2 with upside to make a solid duo to play matchups with.
Gerald Everett has left for Seattle and leaves behind 61 targets and tons of snaps for Higbee to inherit. We shouldn’t expect Higbee to take over all of the Everett work, but a majority of it will overflow towards Higbee. He was the TE18 last year in PPR and goes outside of the Top 12 TEs in ADP right now. Paired with Stafford and the absence of Everett, Higbee is an exciting TE1 option at TE2 price tags.
Whether it’s Rodgers or Love should be irrelevant when thinking about Robert Tonyan. Yes, he is due for TD regression. But he also has so much room to improve on numbers such as targets, yards and receptions. If it is Rodgers, we will love the value we get from drafting Tonyan. If it’s Love, I expect similar numbers because Jordan Love can execute his first and second reads quickly. He’s willing to take what the defense gives him and dink and dunk his way down the field. It sounded like Love was fond of Tonyan back in June OTA’s and could be one of his favorite security blankets outside of Adams and checkdowns to Jones.
The Patriots paid good money for Jonnu’s services and will attempt to make him the centerpiece of their offense. There are reports of lining him up all over the field, including the backfield. They want to give him the ball in as many ways possible. Whether it’s Mac Jones or Cam Newton, expect Jonnu to be busy and flirt with Top 10 TE numbers. He’s being drafted outside of the Top 10 and could be a fun TE to own this year.
Irv Smith Jr:
I am starting to come around on Irv Smith as a potential TE1 this season. With Kyle Rudolph out of town, one would expect this means more for Irv Smith, yet HC Mike Zimmer has said that Irv’s role is likely to not change, and if anything, Tyler Conklin will have an increased role. With Rudolph injured last year for Weeks 14-17, Irv piled up 20 targets, 15 receptions, 183yds and 3 TDs. Conklin went for 21 targets, 15 rec, 168yds and 1 TD in this same span. This is a good 4 game sample size with Irv potential racking up 89 targets, 63 rec, 777yds and 12TDs. He likely won’t reach these numbers, but it is entirely possible. Draft Irv as your TE1 or TE2 this year as part of a duo or trio and see what happens.