<— return to 2023 Playbook
The tiers below are in order of ADP from Underdog. Find the best Week 17 games to stack here.
Quarterback:
Tier 1: Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen
I was skeptical at first, with the top 3 QBs all going in the 2nd round of best ball drafts in May. Now that I have had time to draft a good amount of best ball teams, I have come to accept that these three early round QBs are solid picks, especially when stacked with Kelce, AJB and Diggs. If you grab one of these skill players in the first round to start your drafts, I think it’s OK to stack with the 2nd round QB, although I wish they fell into the 3rd. I think there will be a lot of people stacking these guys so it might be a good idea to pivot from these popular stacks at some point. It’s difficult to get a deep Philly stack, but you can easily grab multiple passing weapons from the Chiefs and Bills much later.
Tier 2: Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields
I have not been drafting a lot of Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields early. Lamar usually costs an early 3rd and I’m just not comfortable taking him over guys like Rhamondre, Chubb, Jacobs, Breece, and DK. It’s difficult to stack Lamar with Andrews, but easy to grab those 3 Baltimore WRs later. I will need to get some exposure to Lamar soon, hoping he falls to the late 3rd Round, but people have begun to take Lamar + Andrews at 2.12/3.01. With Fields, I love the rushing upside but am not in love with the stacking options in Chicago. He currently costs a 4th round pick and is beginning to look like a solid bargain based on who’s being drafted around him. That 4th round has a lot of bust potential and I think Fields presents one of the safest selections. I’ll need to start adding more Fields to my portfolio.
Tier 3: Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence
The next tier is a favorite of mine. Burrow costs a mid to late 4th round and has become difficult to stack with Ja’Marr Chase. The Burrow to Higgins stack is a little more achievable and as I mentioned earlier, the 4th round is somewhat flimsy so I don’t mind taking QB here. In the 5th round is where you can land Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence. Both guys have tremendous upside and offer a decent rushing floor. It is fairly easy to stack Herbert with any of his weapons as well as Lawrence. In this ADP range, there’s some RBs I really like and the WRs here are fine but not great. I believe Herbert has Top 5 upside at the position this year if the Chargers can finally stay healthy.
Tier 4: Deshaun Watson, Anthony Richardson, Dak Prescott, Tua Tagovailoa, Kirk Cousins, Daniel Jones
The next tier of QBs presents some solid value and easy stacking access, all being drafted between picks 83-104. My tendencies to draft one of these QBs usually depends on which WRs I’ve already selected. If Tua plays a full season, he’s the greatest value of the bunch. Richardson and Jones are the least sexy stacks, but it’s super easy to snag multiple weapons in their offense. Dak and the Cowboys get the Lions in Week 17 and we should be prioritizing players on these teams, as it likely has the 2nd highest implied point total in that week.
Tier 5: Aaron Rodgers, Geno Smith, Jared Goff, Russell Wilson
To me, this is the last tier before the QB cliff of non QB1 potential. It’s easy to see all 4 of these QBs finishing the season as QB1s and the ADP on this group is super cheap. The ADP range is 112-133. I find it relatively easy to stack these 4 with 2-3 of their offensive weapons as well. I’ve been enjoying grabbing 2 of these guys in some drafts, or locking in one of them as my QB2 and being done with the position. All 4 offenses are getting better in 2023.
Tier 6: Derek Carr, Jordan Love, Kyler Murray, Matthew Stafford, Bryce Young, Trey Lance, Kenny Pickett, Jimmy Garoppolo
This next tier presents decent low end QB2 value. I think Carr, Love and Stafford are decent QB2s, but the rest look best as your QB3. As we get this late in drafts, stacking is fairly easy to do. I have 0 interest in Trey Lance at these prices. Jimmy Garoppolo could be a value if he plyas a full season.
Tier 7: CJ Stroud, Brock Purdy, Sam Howell, Desmond Ridder, Mac Jones, Baker Mayfield, Will Levis, Ryan Tannehill
I would never feel great with one of these as my QB2, but they all look fine as your QB3. I’d prefer to not rely on anyone from this group, but I do find myself interested when Stroud, Howell or Ridder falls below ADP.
Running Back:
Tier 1: Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, Austin Ekeler
All 3 cost a first round pick this year. I don’t love grabbing CMC in the top 5 over the stud WRs available, but find myself loving Bijan in the middle of the round and Ekeler at the end of round 1. I think Bijan will be closing the ADP gap between him and CMC over the next month or two. FWIW, Ekeler is my RB1 in PPR projections.
Tier 2: Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, Nick Chubb, Tony Pollard, Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, Rhamondre Stevenson, Breece Hall
This is a large tier for me but I absolutely love this group. Saquon and JT cost a 2nd round pick for sure, and sometimes Chubb/Pollard fall into the 3rd round. I prefer the WRs in the Saquon/JT ADP range, but both RBs have Top 5 upside at the position. At the back end of the 2nd round and early 3rd, I have been hammering Chubb and Rhamondre. Easily my two favorite value’s in this RB tier. I’m fine with every RB in this group and don’t mind waiting until Round 3 to take my first RB as my anchor. Breece, Henry and Jacobs are third rounders and all have question marks this year, but could easily be smashing values at current ADP.
Tier 3: Travis Etienne, Najee Harris, Jahmyr Gibbs
This group of RBs is the current fourth round RB options. Gibbs is my favorite of the group and I continue to select him in this range, especially in full PPR. I like ETN, but I’m not in love with him. Slightly concerned with Tank Bigsby stealing goal-line work, but I do think ETN will be a rock solid RB2. With Najee, I’m expecting the Steelers offense to be better in 2023, especially the OL. Slight concern with Jaylen Warren earning more work but otherwise Harris is a rock steady RB2 as well. Swing for the upside with Gibbs though. These guys are all fine if you used your first three picks on non RBs.
Tier 4: Kenneth Walker, Aaron Jones, Miles Sanders, JK Dobbins, Joe Mixon, Dameon Pierce
Besides Tier 2, this is easily my next favorite group to draft from. I think they are all solid RB2s with RB1 upside this year, and you can easily draft two of these guys as your first two backs and come away feeling good about your group. The Kenneth Walker fall has gone too far. People are not drafting him like he won’t see 15+ touches per game. KW3, Pierce, JK and Sanders are all in my Top 6 of most drafted RBs so far, with Gibbs + Bijan being the other 2.
Tier 5: Dalvin Cook, D’Andre Swift, Isiah Pacheco, Cam Akers, Rachaad White, Alexander Mattison, James Conner, David Montgomery
When you wait on RBs, these guys tend to start looking good at their ADP. I prefer all of them as my RB3 if I can, and they all present solid RB2 upside. Alexander Mattison has RB1 upside when Cook gets released, and even Cook has that same upside if he signs with the right team. Conner and Montgomery will rack up touches and are cheaper versions of RBs going ahead of them.
Tier 6: Javonte Williams, James Cook, Alvin Kamara, Zach Charbonnet, AJ Dillon, Brian Robinson, Samaje Perine
I’m avoiding Javonte Williams this year and keep targeting Samaje Perine in this range. Perine will be heavily used early on and has the chance to be the lead back all year in Denver. James Cook is a nice discount and will be the receiving back for sure in Buffalo, he just has goal-line competition from Damien Harris and Latavius Murray. I’m not sure what to expect from Charbonnet this year, but he looks fine as your RB3/4 on your bench. AJ Dillon should bounce back in 2023 and will be a useful bench piece. Brian Robinson is set to lead the Commanders backfield in touches this year and is now a full year removed from his knee gunshot wound. He could be a really nice surprise in 2023.
Tier 7: De’Von Achane, Rashaad Penny, Damien Harris, Khalil Herbert, Antonio Gibson, Jamaal Williams, Elijah Mitchell, Jerick McKinnon, Kendre Miller, Roschon Johnson, Jaylen Warren, Raheem Mostert, D’Onta Foreman, Tank Bigsby
Welcome to the dart rounds. All of these guys have a chance at fantasy relevance but likely require an injury to a backfield mate to succeed. I have been selecting guys with guaranteed roles, such as Gibson, Jamaal Williams, Mitchell, McKinnon, Warren, Mostert and Bigsby. The Dolphins backfield is a total guess and I’ve been buying whoever falls, as well as the Bears RBs. Jaylen Warren is a favorite target of mine when he dips.
Tier 8: Tyler Allgeier, Devin Singletary, Ezekiel Elliott, Chase Brown, Jeff Wilson, Tyjae Spears, Chuba Hubbard, Kenneth Gainwell, Leonard Fournette, Gus Edwards, Jerome Ford, Kareem Hunt, Zach Evans, Deuce Vaughn, Michael Carter, Ty Chandler, DeWayne McBride, James Robinson, Israel Abanikanda, Cordarrelle Patterson, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Joshua Kelley, Zamir White, Keaontay Ingram, Trayveon Williams, Pierre Strong, Malik Davis, Sean Tucker, Evan Hull, Eric Gray
Ugh, the handcuff tier. My favorites include Gainwell, Spears, Jeff Wilson and whoever seems to be locked into the backup role. That’s guys like Gus, Ford, CEH, Zamir, Ingram. Drafting rookies this late is fine. Not sure who emerges as RB2 for the Vikings, Jets, Bengals or Cowboys.
Wide Receivers:
Tier 1: Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Tyreek Hill, Cooper Kupp
The top 4 picks in your fantasy drafts should be WRs. Draft them. Stack them. Enjoy.
Tier 2: Stefon Diggs, AJ Brown, Davante Adams, CeeDee Lamb, Garrett Wilson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jaylen Waddle, Chris Olave, DeVonta Smith, Tee Higgins, DK Metcalf
Target these guys aggressively until they are gone. Metcalf will be the last one of these guys picked in the third round and he’s an amazing value. The only guy I have not been drafting from this group is Davante Adams. Something about the Raiders feels off this year. It’s OK to start your draft with two WRs.
Tier 3: Deebo Samuel, Calvin Ridley, Amari Cooper, Christian Watson, Mike Williams, DeAndre Hopkins, Jerry Jeudy, Keenan Allen, Drake London, Terry McLaurin, Christian Kirk, Michael Pittman Jr., Chris Godwin
To me, there’s a huge dropoff in WRs after Metcalf. I like this group a lot, but prefer all of them to be slotted as my WR3. I have not been drafting Deebo at these prices, or DHop. I probably need to add some soon though. Everyone else is in play for me in the 4th/5th rounds and although I don’t see any WR1s, the WR2 upside is great. It’s also very easy to stack these WRs with their QBs and other WRs.
Tier 4: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Brandon Aiyuk, Mike Evans, Tyler Lockett, Jordan Addison, Kadarius Toney, George Pickens, Treylon Burks, Diontae Johnson, Marquise Brown, Gabe Davis, Jahan Dotson, Brandin Cooks
This is the final tier before the WR Dead Zone (yes, that is a thing this year). JSN is priced wayyy to high and I won’t be drafting him at all until he comes down to Tier 5 prices. Aiyuk might be the best WR on SF and you get a 3 round discount compared to Deebo. Evans is fine but I have concerns of him slowing down, plus Tampa Bay could be really really bad this year. Lockett is a steal again this year. Addison will lead all rookie WRs in targets by a wide margin. Toney is a headache and I have not been selecting him a lot, only if I have Mahomes. I don’t get why Pickens goes ahead of Diontae, who will lead the team in receptions and targets again this year. Treylon Burks is probably the best WR value in the entire draft right now. He’s currently WR37 and is the clear target leader in TEN and should probably be closer to Tier 3. I find myself passing on Marquise, but he could be a value if DHop is moved. Gabe Davis is only for when I draft Diggs/Allen teams. Dotson is a high upside pick here as well as Brandin Cooks, and the both have really solid floors as WR3s.
Tier 5: Quentin Johnston, Zay Flowers, Michael Thomas, Rashod Bateman, Courtland Sutton, Jameson Williams, Elijah Moore, JuJu Smith Schuster, Odell Beckham Jr., Allen Lazard, Tyler Boyd, Jakobi Meyers
Welcome to the Dead Zone. It’s ugly here. Quentin Johnson is a fun rookie pick but feels a bit rich as the 4th target at best in LAC. Zay Flowers as the first Baltimore WR is interesting but I prefer Bateman a round or so later if I’m trying to stack BAL. Michael Thomas, good luck. Courtland Sutton could be a bounce back candidate but faces target competition from Patrick and rookie Mims. Jameson Williams has the 6 game suspension and probably has the highest upside of anyone in this tier when he returns. I’ve enjoyed drafting him on teams where I went RB early. Elijah Moore has a high PPR floor and could also be the best of this tier. OBJ I can’t trust to stay healthy plus the weekly volatility of a BAL WR will be frustrating. Lazard, Boyd and Meyers are just bench guys at this point. I prefer taking my TEs and QBs in this ADP range over WRs.
Tier 6: Darnell Mooney, Skyy Moore, Zay Jones, Jonathan Mingo, Rashee Rice, Adam Thielen, Romeo Doubs, Jalin Hyatt, Alec Pierce, Michael Gallup, DJ Chark, KJ Osborn, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Rashid Shaheed
I kinda like snagging bench depth in this tier, specifically Michael Gallup. If I have Mahomes, I’m trying to land Moore/Rice/MVS. I don’t get why MVS is the 4th KC WR in ADP when he very likely plays the most snaps and runs the most routes on that team. Alec Pierce has some fun best ball spike weeks coming now that he’s tied to ARich. Romeo Doubs is a pass for me at ADP because I can get Jayden Reed later. DPJ, Shaheed, Chark and Osborn are nice stackable pieces. The Carolina WRs are fine at this ADP in Mingo and Thielen. One of them will be the teams’ WR1 by the end of it. Not interested in Mooney unless you have Fields. I’m also out on Zay in 2023.
Tier 7: Jayden Reed, Josh Downs, Van Jefferson, Marvin Mims, Wan’Dale Robinson, Hunter Renfrow, Rondale Moore, Curtis Samuel, Isaiah Hodgins, Tyquan Thornton, John Metchie, Khalil Shakir, Mecole Hardman, Chase Claypool, Robert Woods, Joshua Palmer, Tim Patrick, Nathaniel Dell, Parris Campbell, Darius Slayton, Richie James
Alrighty, the fun WR dart rounds. Love the rookies this late in Reed, Downs and Mims. Van Jefferson is likely the WR2 for the Rams and he has some spike weeks in his arsenal. I’m out on Wan’Dale, Renfrow and Rondale. Curtis is fine as one of your last WRs. My money is on Isaiah Hodgins being the best Giants WR, but I’m also interested in Parris Campbell at his low ADP. I can see both guys leading the Giants in receptions. Fun group of 2nd year WRs in Thornton, Metchie, Shakir are all worth a shot this late. Mecole Hardman was playing great before injury last year and should have some kind of role on the Jets worth a pick this late. Claypool, Woods, Patrick, Slayton, Palmer are fine last WRs on your teams. I also really like Richie James as my last WR, who could be the best slot WR in KC.
Tier 8: Cedric Tillman, Allen Robinson, Corey Davis, DeVante Parker, Terrace Marshall, Mack Hollins, Puka Nacua, Justyn Ross, Quez Watkins, Deonte Harty, Josh Reynolds, Braxton Berrios, Kayshon Boutte, Charlie Jones, Russell Gage, Tutu Atwell, Michael Wilson, Kyle Phillips
Try not to rely on any of these guys. If you had to pick one, I like Kyle Phillips to be the 2nd WR in TEN.
Tight Ends:
Tier 1: Travis Kelce
Say yes to Kelce in 2023. Easy to snag Mahomes round 2 for stackage. Might need to get creative with Kelce builds to stick out.
Tier 2: Mark Andrews
The only guy who could make a run at TE1, althought still not likely. Bounce back season coming.
Tier 3: TJ Hockenson, George Kittle, Kyle Pitts, Dallas Goedert, Darren Waller
To be honest, I don’t love this group. Hockenson and Kittle cost a 4th/5th rounder where I just prefer the other positions. Pitts and Goedert in the 6th are intriguing, and Waller in the 7th has some upside but just feels risky to me. Been a while since we’ve seen Waller ball out. These guys are all safe bets to be Top 5 TE’s but something about it just doesn’t excite me.
Tier 4: Evan Engram, David Njoku, Pat Freiermuth
This is the tier I love. Not so much Evan Engram, who’ll face some target competition with Ridley there now. But it’s Njoku and Pat that I’ve been drafting a lot. In fact, Pat Freiermuth is my most drafted TE at the moment. Dude was top 6 in yards, receptions and targets last year among TEs. His only issue was the 2 TDs, which he is likely to double that at least. For Njoku, he’s a huge part of the red zone offense and I expect the Browns to pass a little more in 2023.
Tier 5: Dalton Kincaid, Dalton Schultz, Chigoziem Okonkwo, Cole Kmet
I don’t draft Kmet or Kincaid in this area, but I am all in on Okonkwo. He’s set up to be the 2nd target in this offense and has a chance at a Top 10 finish. Schultz is a high floor play and should be one of Stroud’s favorite targets.
Tier 6: Greg Dulcich, Tyler Higbee, Irv Smith, Juwan Johnson, Sam LaPorta, Gerald Everett
Some high upside guys in this tier. My favorite is Higbee, who could be 2nd in targets for the Rams. Juwan Johnson could be a poor man’s Darren Waller for Derek Carr. LaPorta is a fun TE2/3 pick and is way cheaper than fellow rookie Kincaid. Irv Smith is kind of a headache but if he plays the full year, he’ll be a value. Everett is a solid backup TE as well. As for Dulcich, I’m not quite sure where he stands with the new coaching staff and he’s likely the 4th target at best.
Tier 7: Dawson Knox, Taysom Hill, Michael Mayer, Mike Gesicki, Hayden Hurst, Tyler Conklin, Trey McBride, Isaiah Likely, Noah Fant, Jelani Woods
Some fun options in this tier. I prefer Conklin the most, as he had a solid year last year and now gets the Rodgers bump. Hurst could be a security blanket for Bryce Young. McBride likely starts the year while Ertz goes to the PUP. Isaiah Likely can be a league winner if anything happens to Andrews. Fant and Woods are just both super cheap reliable bench options.
Tier 8: Jake Ferguson, Zach Ertz, Luke Musgrave, Hunter Henry, Luke Schoonmaker, Cade Otton, Logan Thomas, Foster Moreau, Darnell Washington, Durham Smythe
Just some more dart throws at TE. Not sure who’s the Dallas starter yet, but my money is on Ferguson. Cade Otton is the best of this bunch.
