Best Ball ADP 5.0

by @theFellowKGB (8/1/19)

Welcome back to my 5th installment of tracking Best Ball ADP from BB10s this offseason.  This time around we are looking at the ADP movement from the month of July.

The charts below are broken down into a few different ways of looking at the same information.  Directly below we have the top 200 ADP, click to the link to view.  From there, you will see a filtered list compiled of players with the greatest ADP change broken into two categories, Risers and Fallers.  After that, I break down each position separately yet in groups of QB, RB, WR and TE.  Enjoy.

Top 200

Risers/Fallers

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Marquez Valdes-Scantling had the biggest ADP spike in July, jumping up 4 to 5 rounds!  People are getting excited about his second year with Rodgers, and for good reason.  He will be the starting outside receiver opposite Davante Adams.  It appears that Geronimo Allison will primarily work from the slot.  MVS will likely be a better best ball target, while Allison should deliver solid floor games for redraft PPR leagues.

Kalen Ballage has been getting the first reps with the starting offense over Kenyan Drake.  While he might not be the clear 1A in this situation, he’ll likely have some value in redraft leagues.  He saw an ADP spike of nearly 4 rounds and comes in second on our list.

Justin Jackson sits third and moved up nearly 4 full rounds himself, mostly due to the Melvin Gordon holdout news.  If Gordon does indeed holdout, I would expect Jackson to step into the Gordon role with Ekeler maintaining his pass catching role.  Ekeler would likely get increased carries as well.

Donte Moncrief comes in at #4.  Moncrief looks to have secured his spot as the number 2 option in this offense.  It also appears that James Washington is in competition with rookie Diontae Jackson for the third receiver spot.  Moncrief suffered a dislocated middle finger earlier this week and Diontae Jackson was first man up to replace Moncrief, not Washington.

Peyton Barber rounds out the top 5 here.  There has been notes about him being more involved as a receiver this year.  He is being drafted after Ronald Jones and is beginning to look like a decent value in the double digit rounds.  Monitor Jones in pre-season to see if Barber can lock down the starting job.

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QB

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Deshaun Watson has taken a step over Aaron Rodgers as the QB3.  A healthy receiving group of Hopkins/Fuller/Coutee should help deliver a top 5 finish for Watson.  An overall QB1 finish is not outside of the range of outcomes for Watson either.  The offensive line will still be among the league’s worst, so expect a lot of passing this year again.

Drew Brees has been sliding in July.  He still ranks as QB7, but there is more separation from him and the top 6 now.  The Saints will have a solid defense and will look to run the ball as often as they can this year.  Brees has decline in pass attempts and yards in each of the last two seasons.

Russell Wilson has also seen a dip in ADP, over 1 full round actually.  Seattle will be run heavy again this year, so this might scare some people off.  I’m buying Wilson at ADP right now though.  The Seattle defense lost some key players this off-season and due to suspension/injury, I’m thinking Seattle might have to pass a little more than they hoped for this year.

I’m ignoring Kyler Murray’s 2 round ADP spike. Murray has been rising all summer, so this is nothing new. The next biggest ADP bumps come from Lamar Jackson and Dak Prescott.   Jackson and Prescott are interesting because of what they add for us with their rushing ability.  Prescott has never finished outside of the top 12 QBs and has been a fantastic discount all summer.  Jackson should show development as a passer in year 2 and has the tremendous rushing floor built in.  Both should be QB1s.

RB

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We don’t need to discuss the Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley declines.  Gordon is off of my draft board and Gurley only comes into play for me in the third round.  David Johnson is the real story among the top backs.  He has cemented himself as the 5th RB off the board and has closed the gap to the top 4.  The Cardinals defense will still be among the league’s worst and Patrick Peterson is out for the first six games.  DJ might be the perfect guy to take at 5th overall and help you out to a hot start.

Damien Williams and Kerryon Johnson are being drafted outside of the top 12 RBs but will provide RB1 numbers when healthy. Williams has been resting with a hamstring injury but appears to be fine.  His workload should start increasing as early as next week.  He is likely a late 2nd round pick on draft day.  There’s also a whisper about Carlos Hyde potentially being cut.  Stay tuned.  As for Kerryon Johnson, the Lions released Theo Riddick last week, freeing up a ton of running back targets.  CJ Anderson and Zach Zenner will likely see some carries to spell Johnson, but not enough to have me worried.  With Riddick out of the picture, Johnson will be an RB1 this year.

Josh Jacobs’ ADP seems to have finally settled at the early fourth round range.  Jon Gruden has been known to give high volume to his lead back, so Jacobs should be no different.  He might lose some passing down work to Jalen Richard, but he’ll manage most if not all of the red-zone and goal-line work.  The Raiders improved on both sides of the ball this off-season.  Although I’m not expecting a playoff run, we should be expecting much better game-scripts to keep Jacobs in the RB2 range for his rookie year.

Derrick Henry was seen in a walking boot during the first week of training camp.  Reports are that he strained a calf muscle and will likely rest for a few weeks.  Some people believe Henry can lead the league in rushing attempts and touchdowns this year, so this is an unwelcomed event.  He doesn’t offer anything in the passing game, so I might be pulling Henry off of my board to avoid any fourth round blunders.  I’m not sure I trust the Titans to control many game-scripts this year, making Dion Lewis look like a late round value.

We’ll finish here with James White and tie in Sony Michel.  Michel has been a limited participant in camp so far, yielding reps to rookie Damien Harris, Rex Burkhead and Brandon Bolden.  White is locked into his pass catching role that helped him finish as the RB7 last year in PPR leagues.  Even with some regression coming, White is an RB2 at a late 4th to early 5th round price.  Buy.  Michel’s ADP has dipped over a full round this past month into the 5th and sometimes 6th round.  He offers very little in the passing game, although reports have said the Patriots are trying to get him and Harris more involved.

WR

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We have to mention Tyreek Hill off the top here.  He’ll be a candidate for a Top 5 finish this year at the position and warrants a second round pick.  Hill bruised his quad in practice a couple of days ago, but he should be fine.  You’ll want to get a piece of the Chiefs offense this year, so if you don’t get Kelce early, consider Hill.

We’ll note the Vikings duo of Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs both had a slight dip in July.  We believe the Vikings will be more run oriented this season, making them both better WR2 options than WR1s.

Chris Godwin and Tyler Lockett should be tied together in this take.  Both guys have been inching up the draft boards all summer, finally settling into their 4th round price tags.  Bruce Arians has talked up Godwin often, saying he’ll never come off of the field and that he could catch 100 balls this year.  Lockett steps inside to the slot and will lead the Seahawks in targets this year.  Both seem like locks for WR2 production.

I’d like to call out Corey Davis down at WR32.  He finished WR27 last year with hot and cold QB play.  His ADP is off, as he should be able to grow in his third year and become more consistent.  I’m buying Davis wherever I can at ADP and am expecting WR2 numbers this year.

We’ll jump down to Christian Kirk next.  Currently being drafted around the WR35 range, Kirk presents huge value for us here.  He’s been described as the best WR in Cardinals camp is the favorite to lead the team in receptions and yards.  In a PPR league, he should finish no worse than a WR3 and has WR2 upside this year.

TE

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This is the most red we’ve seen from the Tight End charts all summer.  As a whole, they were moving up steadily up until this month.  There appears to be a clear drop off in interest after the top 6 or 7 guys.  More people are learning that if you wait on tight end, you wait super late.  Guys like Vance McDonald and Mark Andrews have been favorites of mine when using this strategy.  Andrews could lead the Ravens in touchdowns this year and will likely improve upon his TE16 finish last year.  Darren Waller down there at the bottom of the chart has also been creepin’ up the boards.  He will be the starter in Oakland and should benefit from the attention given to Antonio Brown and Tyrell Williams.  Pairing Waller with another late round TE seems like a solid idea.

Final Note:
Keep in mind that all of the data collected is for best ball leagues.  You can safely use the positional ADP as a form of rankings but the overall top 200 rankings might not be the best to use for your redraft league.
I prefer using the ADP data from BB10s because these are leagues where people are paying to make these picks.  BB10s are ran through MyFantasyLeague, one of the best, if not thee best site to run your redraft or dynasty leagues on.  You could also try a best ball league on Draft, but I feel more confident in saying the ADP is a little more accurate with BB10s.
I also enjoy some mock draft sites like FFCalculator and DraftWizard to try different ideas and strategies out, although the ADP at both seem a little off.   I’ll be logging the ADP from FFCalc throughout the summer and will post my findings sometime in August before the fantasy draft season really begins.  You can check out my Podcast/Video on Mock Draft sites here.
I hope you enjoyed this article!  Feel free to ask me questions and follow me on Twitter @theFellowKGB
Thanks,
KGB