Best Ball ADP 4.0

by @theFellowKGB (7/3/19)

Welcome back to my 4th installment of tracking Best Ball ADP from BB10s this offseason.  This time around we are looking at the ADP movement from the month of June. If you checked out last months article you would have seen Rookies dominating the Risers/Fallers charts, fresh off the draft and jostling for their ADP positions.  June’s ADP movement still shows a lot of rookies on the rise with all of the mandatory minicamp buzz floating around, but now we can finally see some of the cream rise to the top as July begins.  NFL teams are on a 3/4 week vacation before Training Camps ramp up late July, so the next few weeks will be stagnant on the information front.  These next few weeks will give us time to pause and reflect on the things we have seen so far and what we may be able to project for the rest of the summer and 2019 season.  The charts below are broken down into a few different ways of looking at the same information.  Directly below we have the top 200 ADP.  From there, you will see a filtered list compiled of players with the greatest ADP change broken into two categories, Risers and Fallers.  After that, I break down each position separately yet in groups of QB/TE and RB/WR.  I chose to do this grouping because QB and TE have similar drafting strategies while RB and WR are the two most coveted positions and get the most attention with early draft picks.  Enjoy.

Top 200

200

Risers/Fallers

RiseFall

Atop the Risers list we have Tampa Bay second year RB Ronald Jones.  Interestingly enough, not far behind him on the same list we have RB Peyton Barber.  It appears that drafters are expecting some positive growth for the Tampa Bay running game out of new head coach Bruce Arians, with most of the excitement pointed towards Jones.  Camp reviews have been glowing for Jones, with coaches and players commenting on his obvious improvement and comfortability in his second year.  The next name to pop out is second year WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling in Green Bay.  Aaron Rodgers had some encouraging comments on MVS and all reports out of Green Bay camp were positive, even some beat writers think he can be the true #2 behind Davante Adams and outplay Geronimo Allison.  Mecole Hardman saw a big ADP spike in June but that is sure to come down now that it appears that Tyreek Hill will play at some point this year.  Rookie RBs continued their ADP climb from June, with Alexander Mattison cracking the top 200 while Miles Sanders, Justice Hill and Darrell Henderson keep inching higher and higher on people’s boards.  I’ll get into the QBs more in the next chart but it’s important to note how high Kyler Murray’s ADP keeps climbing.  The only other QB in the top 36 Risers is Carson Wentz, fresh off of his new contract and positive practice reports.
The Fallers are not as interesting as the Risers, but certain players stick out as potential bargains.  Emmanuel Sanders, Zay Jones, Marquise Goodwin, Robert Foster and Quincy Enunwa should all have value at some point this season.  Tyreek Hill continued to fall in June but I would expect him to be high on the riser list next month.  We have a lot of QBs falling as the fantasy community continues to fade the position and elects to grab skill players.   I would continue to focus more on who’s moving up but just keep in mind that some of the fallers are now entering positions of value at ADP.

QBs/TEs

QBTE

At first glance of the Quarterbacks column, you will see that only 4 QBs had positive ADP changes in June.  Kyler Murray had the greatest rise with a change of 8.27 spots, followed by Carson Wentz (2.38), Dak Prescott (.99) and Derek Carr (.97).  Murray is intriguing because of his unknown ceiling and the feeling that the Cardinals offense will be improved upon from last year.  His rushing stats may be the tipping point for him to produce as a QB1 this year.  With Wentz, his new contract has secured him a spot with the Eagles for the next four years and perhaps gives him even more confidence coming into this season after missing the last half of 2018.  He’s being drafted as QB11 and possesses top 5 upside.  Dak Prescott is somehow all the way down at QB19.  In his first three season, he has finished no worse than QB12 and now has a whole offseason to gel with Amari Cooper and free agent Randall Cobb.  Jason Witten is also back, although I’m not expecting much from him for fantasy purposes.  Either way, Dak is a low end QB1 and has the best tools around him since entering the league.  Derek Carr is also criminally undervalued at QB25.  In his last three seasons, he has been a top 20 QB and now has the best WR weapon in his career with Antonio Brown.  The addition of Tyrell Williams and draft pick Hunter Renfrow will also help Carr deliver another top 20 season, and perhaps more.
The tight ends as a whole are moving up in ADP.  More than half of the listed TEs experience a positive change in ADP.  The biggest winner in June was Ravens second year TE Mark Andrews with a positive 2.88 change in ADP.  People are slowly catching on to Andrews as being the best Ravens TE and having the best chemistry with Lamar Jackson.  Availability has played a large factor in this, as Hayden Hurst was dinged up most of his rookie season and has continued to miss time this offseason.  Andrews was TE17 last year in PPR.  Behind him, we see Eagles second year TE Dallas Goedert up 2.62 spots.  The Eagles have openly said that they view him as their second Starting TE, not the backup to Ertz.  They plan to use him often in the Red Zone and exploit the mismatches presented from teams focusing on Ertz, DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery.  Not too far behind Andrews and Goedert, we have Vance McDonald rising up 2.19 spots.  The buzz around McDonald will continue to grow when training camps open up now that Antonio Brown and Jesse James have departed.  Vance steps into the clear starting role here and has the opportunity to take on a larger target share with Brown and James out of the picture.  The WR battle will be intriguing to watch in Pittsburgh, but all eyes should be on Vance perhaps becoming to second best target on the Steelers in 2019.

RBs/WRs

RBWR

We’ve mentioned some of the biggest risers and fallers earlier just so happened to be from the RB/WR group, so we won’t cover any of these players again.  Instead, we’ll focus on some of the other players who had slight ADP shifts but big enough for us to give attention to.  We’ll start with the RBs Marlon Mack, Sony Michel, Tarik Cohen and Derrius Guice.  Mack’s ADP fall of 2.03 spots is worth mentioning because just last month we saw Mack was up 2.73 spots.  So people were higher on him in May, but cooled off in June.  Interesting.  Mack was RB16 and is now RB18.  He is being drafted in this third round cluster of RBs with Derrick Henry, Aaron Jones, Josh Jacobs, Devonta Freeman and Leonard Fournette.  He’s a piece of one of the best offenses in the NFL but is also being drafted at his ceiling.  Just behind Mack at RB20 we have Sony Michel.  Michel fell 3.02 spots in June, largely because of his knee scope and lack of participation in minicamps.  James White gets all of the passing targets so Michel is purely a 2 down back, but the presence of 3rd round draft pick Damien Harris looms.  Harris would be the next man up for the 2 down role if Michel were to miss any time.  At RB24 we see Bears RB Tarik Cohen falling 1.63 spots.  The biggest reason for this is because of rookie David Montgomery, who saw a nice rise of 3.45 spots in June.  The early speculation from Bears camp is that they want more versatility from the rest of their backs, so getting Montgomery involved in the passing game seems like a priority.  They also have Mike Davis who is an exceptional pass protector and receiver, so the sum of all of these parts have Tarik Cohen taking a bit of fall.  I’ll briefly go over Derrius Guice and why he has fallen to RB26 with a -3.44 in June.  We simply want to avoid the Washington Redskins for fantasy this year.  Adrian Peterson is still there so he’ll be given the lead back role to start the year.  Perhaps Guice can carve out a larger role as the season progresses, but the Redskins offense as a whole is one we should just cross out and look elsewhere.
The last RB I’d like to call out is Latavius Murray, who saw a rise of 4.45 spots up to RB36.  He’s going to be most useful in best ball leagues this season for sure, but Murray should be able to receive most of the workload left behind by Mark Ingram, although I don’t think we can just plug Murray into the same amount of touches and TDs.  I’ve been developing this narrative for the Saints this year where they have a 40yr old Drew Brees and want to win the Superbowl this year.  They need to keep Brees, Kamara and Thomas healthy to make a long playoff run again this year, which brings in Murray.  Murray has the frame to handle a sizeable workload and help keep Kamara fresh, similar to how Ingram did.  Now Murray does not equal Ingram, but volume and opportunity are there in this potent offense.
The WR movement is mostly boring towards the top, but I’ll point out that Chris Godwin and Tyler Lockett have been moving up every month and are both firmly locked into WR2 roles this season.  There will be a Tyreek Hill effect to take in next month so we’ll probably see Hill climb up and Watson settle into his round 5/6 ADP.  Christian Kirk is the next biggest mover after Godwin and Lockett, moving up 2.50 spots after glowing camp reports of him being the best WR on the field in Arizona.  Some honorable mentions go out to Keke Coutee, Dede Westbrook, Curtis Samuel, DeSean Jackson and and Devin Funchess.  All of these WRs had positive buzz this offseason and will be names to monitor once the pads come on.  I guess the biggest takeaway with this WR group is that drafters want a piece of the #2 WR in Green Bay.   Geronimo Allison climbed up 7.90 spots while MVS shot up 11.98 spots.  Rodgers has been able to carry multiple fantasy relevant WRs in the past and this year should be no different.
Final Note:
Keep in mind that all of the data collected is for best ball leagues.  You can safely use the positional ADP as a form of rankings but the overall top 200 rankings might not be the best to use for your redraft league.
I prefer using the ADP data from BB10s because these are leagues where people are paying to make these picks.  BB10s are ran through MyFantasyLeague, one of the best, if not thee best site to run your redraft or dynasty leagues on.  You could also try a best ball league on Draft, but I feel more confident in saying the ADP is a little more accurate with BB10s.
I also enjoy some mock draft sites like FFCalculator and DraftWizard to try different ideas and strategies out, although the ADP at both seem a little off.   I’ll be logging the ADP from FFCalc throughout the summer and will post my findings sometime in August before the fantasy draft season really begins.  You can check out my Podcast/Video on Mock Draft sites here.
I hope you enjoyed this article!  Feel free to ask me questions and follow me on Twitter @theFellowKGB
Thanks,
KGB