Best Ball ADP 3.0

by @theFellowKGB (6/12/19)

Welcome back to another monthly check in on the ADP over on BB10s.  My last ADP check in only tracked the movement of the top 100 players, but this month we expanded to the top 200 to include more rookies and sleepers.  A quick scan of the risers and fallers chart will show you that the biggest movement happened mostly from rookies, and this makes perfect sense for the month of May.  Drafters had some time to reflect on the rookies and their new landing spots, resulting in their large spikes or in some cases, small declines.  I would guess that next months edition will be a much better hint at true ADP risers and fallers, allowing the rookies to sink in comfortably to their ADP while the other veterans and sleepers continue to separate themselves throughout mandatory minicamps and past OTAs.  The charts below give you the full forest view of the top 200 players.  Below these charts I’ll break down the Risers and Fallers of the top 200 and then take a zoom in look into each position.  Enjoy!

Top 200

Top 200.jpg

Risers/Fallers

At first glance of the Risers, you will see rookies scattered throughout the top of the list.  Running backs Miles Sanders, Justice Hill, Darrell Henderson, David Montgomery and Josh Jacobs all took large steps forward in the month of May.  Jacobs is the favorite rookie RB and finds himself easily atop the Raiders depth chart, making him an RB2 target in the 3rd and 4th rounds.  David Montgomery appears be the clear number 2 behind Jacobs in terms of ADP, but finds himself in a camp battle with Mike Davis and will be capped in PPR leagues by the presence of Tarik Cohen.  Darrell Henderson’s ADP is the most likely to continue to rise as concerns and uncertainty of Todd Gurley’s knee cloud his future.  The Rams will most likely be finding creative ways to get Henderson on the field even if Gurley is healthy, perhaps pushing Henderson into a Flex role for fantasy.  The Eagles took Miles Sanders at 52 overall this year and have fantasy drafters excited for his future.  Sanders got the biggest upgrade in ADP because he was a fringe top 5 RB coming into the draft, but with the landing spot and stock the Eagles took in him, it’s clear that they see him in their future plans.  They did trade for Jordan Howard so I am a little skeptical of Sanders in his rookie year.  Howard is an under-rated pass catcher and pass blocker.  Sanders is also missing important early practices with a tweaked hamstring.  The surprise of this rookie group should be Baltimore’s Justice Hill.  Similar to Sanders and his landing spot, Hill was not considered a top 5 RB in the draft but found his way to the most run heavy team in the NFL.  With Mark Ingram added in free agency, Hill will have a chance this summer to compete with Gus Edwards and Kenneth Dixon for a complimentary role to Ingram.

As for other rookies with rising ADP, Kyler Murray is locked in to the starting role and will provide fantasy owners with a steady floor due his his running ability.  The Cardinals defense is missing Patrick Peterson for the first six games so the already weak defense will be considerably weaker to start the year, perhaps inflating the Cardinals offensive output as they will need to keep up with opposing teams.  Patriots WR N’Keal Harry had a significant jump in ADP as well but early reports are that he is working with the second team, but also working closely with Tom Brady on the side.  Besides the rookies, second year running back Ronald Jones is second on the riser list and has had a steady drum beat this spring of being a much improved player for the Bruce Arians offense.  Packers WR Geronimo Allison is the early favorite for the second WR spot after he shined early last season.

As for the fallers, you can ignore Doug Baldwin on the top of the list.  A lot of the players on this list are in direct correlation with teams who drafted rookies in their position.  The faller that sticks out the most is rookie RB Damien Harris for the Patriots.  This does not make sense to me one bit.  The Patriots drafted Sony Michel last year in the first round and then turn around and draft Damien Harris in the third this year.  Michel had lingering knee issues last year and as of 6/12/19 went under a knee scope and has not been involved with any team activities.  All signs point to Damien Harris getting a share of the backfield touches this year, even if Michel is good to go.  I expect to see him on the riser list next month.

Rise Fall.jpg

 

QBs/TEs

The quarterback and tight end position in fantasy are somewhat secondary positions compared to running backs and receivers.  Its awesome to get the top quarterback or top tight end, but you can always find guys to stream at these positions if you wanted to load up on the skill positions instead.  When looking at the quarterback movement, nearly every quarterback took a step back in ADP.  The above mentioned Kyler Murray is the only one who sticks out with his green ADP.  Andrew Luck saw a slight bump and is firmly locked in as the QB2.  Matt Ryan maintained his ADP and is slowly becoming one of my preferred targets after the top 5 because of his Top 5 upside.  Seems like a safe bet.  Carson Wentz saw a nice bump of nearly 2 ADP spots, most likely because of his new contract and the positive buzz from practices thus far.  If I can’t land Matt Ryan, I’ll usually start looking for Carson Wentz a round or two later.  The only other QB to have positive movement was Derek Carr.  Carr has been a QB2 for the most part of his career, but something feels different this year.  He’s never had a Antonio Brown caliber WR before and the Raiders also added Tyrell Williams.  If you like Carr, you can pair him with another late round QB such as Lamar Jackson or Mitchell Trubisky and just play the matchups.

The tight end movement saw the opposite of the quarterback movement.  With people learning to wait on QB, they are now securing their starting tight end in the mid to late rounds.  The only guys in the top 12 ADP to fall are Eric Ebron, David Njoku and Trey Burton.  I would bet that all of these are going to continue.  Ebron saw a career high in TDs and the Colts added Devin Funchess, drafted Parris Campbell and now get a healthy Jack Doyle back.  With Njoku, the presence of Odell Beckham Jr significantly caps his upside, making him more desirable as a backup TE.  The Rookie TEs TJ Hockenson and Noah Fant saw the biggest jump in ADP and will be streaming options at various moments this season.  Besides the rookies, the more interesting risers are Jared Cook and Vance McDonald.  Cook is now in New Orleans and has a clear path to being the third best receiving option behind Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara.  Vance McDonald no longer has to compete with Jesse James and has a ton of targets up for grabs with the absence of Antonio Brown.  McDonald is one of my favorite targets at TE right now, being drafted as the TE11 and with upside of a top 5/6 TE this year.

QBs TEs

RBs/WRs

You will not find much movement towards the top of these lists, but once we get down to the mid RB2/WR2 range, things become a little more interesting.  The most important movement with the first couple of rounds comes from David Johnson and Keenan Allen.  Todd Gurley’s uncertainty has him falling while drafters are picking up the sense that the Cardinals offense might be exciting for fantasy this year.  Leonard Fournette, Damien Williams, Marlon Mack and Devonta Freeman are all experiencing a little surge of excitement as hopeful drafters are beginning to see RB1 upside from these guys.  I would expect Aaron Jones to get some positive movement next month.  We talked about the rookies earlier so we’ll shout out some of the veteran RBs currently on the move up.  Mark Ingram, Kenyan Drake, Lamar Miller and Latavius Murray all received some love in the month of May.  Ingram finds himself on the most run heavy team in the league with a young quarterback and a soft schedule to start the year.  Kenyan Drake has a new coaching staff and was tremendous as a pass catcher last year, finishing as the RB14 in PPR leagues in a terrible situation last year.  Lamar Miller is in a potent offense and Houston did not draft a running back this year, although they added two UDFAs.  Latavius Murray signed with the Saints to replace Mark Ingram and help keep Alvin Kamara healthy.  I would expect the Saints to be thinking Superbowl this year, so they will definitely look to keep Kamara fresh with a good dose of Latavius Murray every now and then.

The first few WRs with positive ADP are DJ Moore, Chris Godwin, Tyler Lockett and Sammy Watkins.  These guys are all viewed as potential WR2s this year and are expected to see a increased role.  Bruce Arians has doubled down on his comment about Godwin being a 100 catch WR this year.  Sammy Watkins might have the highest upside of these four guys, especially if Tyreek Hill is suspended.  If we keep moving down the list, you’ll see the next group of risers in Sterling Shepard, Dede Westbrook, Curtis Samuel, DeSean Jackson, DK Metcalf, Anthony Miller and Devin Funchess.  I left out Harry because we talked about him earlier.  All of these guys are expected to see increased roles as well.  Curtis Samuel is turning just 23 this August and has a pretty good lock on the WR2 role in that offense.  His ceiling is still unknown and is a favorite target of mine late in drafts.  DeSean Jackson might be my favorite best ball target in the double digit rounds as I’ve read nothing but positive reviews in camp on his connection with Carson Wentz.  I’ll be excited to re-evaluate all of the movement next month now that we’ve given the rookies time to settle into their ADP.

RBs WRs.jpg

Final Note:

Keep in mind that all of the data collected is for best ball leagues.  You can safely use the positional ADP as a form of rankings but the overall top 200 rankings might not be the best to use for your redraft league.

I prefer using the ADP data from BB10s because these are leagues where people are paying to make these picks.  BB10s are ran through MyFantasyLeague, one of the best, if not thee best site to run your redraft or dynasty leagues on.  You could also try a best ball league on Draft, but I feel more confident in saying the ADP is a little more accurate with BB10s.

I also enjoy some mock draft sites like FFCalculator and DraftWizard to try different ideas and strategies out, although the ADP at both seem a little off.   I’ll be logging the ADP from FFCalc throughout the summer and will post my findings sometime in August before the fantasy draft season really begins.

I hope you enjoyed this article!  Feel free to ask me questions and follow me on Twitter @theFellowKGB

Thanks,

KGB