2023 Projected Opportunity Share

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Opportunity Share is the amount of rushing attempts + receptions a player gets divided by the total amount of plays ran within his offense. The higher the opportunity share, the more involved they are in their offense. In this article by Kenny Hyttenhove, we find out that touches have an 92% correlation to PPR Points for RBs, 95% for WRs and 98% for TE. In that article, I used Targets for WR and TE, since that is the majority of their opportunities, whereas the RB chart actually listed Touches. Opportunity Share is a useful stat for all three, and is easily my favorite of the 3 stats above. Below you will find our projected opportunity share’s for 2023.

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Running Backs: (92% correlation) + Wide Receivers: (95% correlation)

Rank		Player	Pos.	RuAtt	Rec	Touches	Opp. Share
1	TEN	Derrick Henry	RB	325	32	357	36.44%
2	LV	Josh Jacobs	RB	295	44	339	33.56%
3	NYG	Saquon Barkley	RB	290	57	347	33.49%
4	ATL	Bijan Robinson	RB	285	38	323	31.75%
5	CLE	Nick Chubb	RB	295	35	330	30.91%
6	HOU	Dameon Pierce	RB	265	40	305	30.29%
7	SF	Christian McCaffrey	RB	215	73	288	29.90%
8	DAL	Tony Pollard	RB	255	48	303	29.72%
9	ARI	James Conner	RB	245	46	291	28.77%
10	CIN	Joe Mixon	RB	225	53	278	27.44%
11	LAC	Austin Ekeler	RB	195	87	282	27.03%
12	TB	Rachaad White	RB	195	58	253	26.73%
13	CAR	Miles Sanders	RB	225	40	265	26.44%
14	PIT	Najee Harris	RB	245	35	280	26.24%
15	NE	Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	195	56	251	26.24%
16	DET	David Montgomery	RB	245	26	271	25.57%
17	SEA	Kenneth Walker III	RB	235	24	259	25.48%
18	JAX	Travis Etienne	RB	225	42	267	25.35%
19	WAS	Brian Robinson	RB	245	27	272	25.23%
20	LAR	Cam Akers	RB	225	25	250	25.12%
21	GB	Aaron Jones	RB	195	50	245	24.64%
22	MIN	Alexander Mattison	RB	225	37	262	24.62%
23	BAL	JK Dobbins	RB	225	26	251	23.08%
24	IND	Jonathan Taylor	RB	215	25	240	22.73%
25	NYJ	Breece Hall	RB	190	39	229	22.22%
26	KC	Isiah Pacheco	RB	215	20	235	21.92%
27	DEN	Javonte Williams	RB	175	39	214	21.64%
28	BUF	James Cook	RB	160	48	208	21.52%
29	CHI	Khalil Herbert	RB	190	18	208	21.29%
30	GB	AJ Dillon	RB	185	29	214	20.85%
31	DET	Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	130	67	197	20.09%
32	DEN	Samaje Perine	RB	165	31	196	19.76%
33	MIA	Raheem Mostert	RB	160	22	182	18.72%
34	NO	Alvin Kamara	RB	120	55	175	18.63%
35	NYJ	Dalvin Cook	RB	160	27	187	18.06%
36	WAS	Antonio Gibson	RB	115	56	171	16.67%
37	MIN	Justin Jefferson	WR	5	120	125	16.47%
38	PHI	D’Andre Swift	RB	135	37	172	16.29%
39	PIT	Jaylen Warren	RB	135	36	171	16.29%
40	MIA	Tyreek Hill	WR	10	104	114	15.86%
41	LV	Davante Adams	WR		100	100	15.82%
42	MIA	Jeff Wilson Jr.	RB	130	21	151	15.76%
43	NO	Jamaal Williams	RB	145	12	157	15.69%
44	LAR	Cooper Kupp	WR	5	104	109	15.46%
45	CIN	Ja’Marr Chase	WR	7	108	115	15.07%
46	DET	Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	10	108	118	15.07%
47	BUF	Stefon Diggs	WR	3	101	104	14.57%
48	SF	Deebo Samuel	WR	35	69	104	14.51%
49	DAL	CeeDee Lamb	WR	10	100	110	14.49%
50	PIT	Diontae Johnson	WR	10	93	103	14.39%
51	NYJ	Garrett Wilson	WR	5	97	102	14.35%
52	TB	Chris Godwin	WR	5	85	90	13.86%
53	MIA	Jaylen Waddle	WR	5	88	93	13.69%
54	TEN	DeAndre Hopkins	WR		84	84	13.47%
55	ATL	Tyler Allgeier	RB	125	11	136	13.27%
56	NO	Chris Olave	WR	5	84	89	13.24%
57	SEA	DK Metcalf	WR	2	87	89	13.17%
58	ARI	Marquise Brown	WR	5	84	89	12.92%
59	JAX	Calvin Ridley	WR	3	83	86	12.81%
60	ATL	Drake London	WR	2	85	87	12.51%
61	TEN	Tyjae Spears	RB	85	31	116	12.38%
62	NE	Ezekiel Elliott	RB	95	24	119	12.38%
63	JAX	Christian Kirk	WR	6	82	88	12.35%
64	KC	Travis Kelce	TE		98	98	12.33%
65	PHI	AJ Brown	WR	2	83	85	12.31%
66	PHI	DeVonta Smith	WR	3	90	93	12.31%
67	SEA	Tyler Lockett	WR	3	86	89	12.31%
68	IND	Michael Pittman Jr.	WR	5	74	79	12.27%
69	PHI	Kenneth Gainwell	RB	95	32	127	12.22%
70	CHI	DJ Moore	WR	5	75	80	12.18%
71	LAC	Keenan Allen	WR		89	89	12.16%
72	MIN	Ty Chandler	RB	110	18	128	12.16%
73	SEA	Zach Charbonnet	RB	95	24	119	12.02%
74	GB	Christian Watson	WR	10	68	78	11.85%
75	WAS	Terry McLaurin	WR	10	74	84	11.71%
76	LAC	Joshua Kelley	RB	100	20	120	11.71%
77	LAR	Kyren Williams	RB	95	21	116	11.59%
78	SF	Brandon Aiyuk	WR	5	73	78	11.57%
79	JAX	Tank Bigsby	RB	105	16	121	11.52%
80	CLE	Amari Cooper	WR		80	80	11.36%
81	MIN	TJ Hockenson	TE		78	78	11.31%
82	WAS	Jahan Dotson	WR	5	74	79	11.26%
83	CIN	Tee Higgins	WR		79	79	11.16%
84	TB	Mike Evans	WR		65	65	10.89%
85	TEN	Treylon Burks	WR	10	65	75	10.89%
86	PIT	George Pickens	WR	5	68	73	10.86%
87	DEN	Courtland Sutton	WR	5	73	78	10.82%
88	HOU	Nico Collins	WR		61	61	10.58%
89	MIN	Jordan Addison	WR	5	76	81	10.50%
90	BAL	Mark Andrews	TE		81	81	10.41%
91	BAL	Zay Flowers	WR	10	61	71	10.41%
92	CHI	D’Onta Foreman	RB	95	7	102	10.40%
93	LAC	Mike Williams	WR		75	75	10.36%
94	CAR	Adam Thielen	WR		67	67	10.10%
95	HOU	Devin Singletary	RB	80	17	97	10.10%
96	CAR	Chuba Hubbard	RB	90	12	102	10.10%
97	DAL	Brandin Cooks	WR	3	70	73	10.09%
98	NYG	Darren Waller	TE		78	78	10.09%
99	BUF	Latavius Murray	RB	85	15	100	10.00%
100	LV	Jakobi Meyers	WR	4	69	73	9.97%

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Tight Ends: (98% correlation)

		Player	Pos.	RuAtt	Rec	Touches	Opp. Share
1	KC	Travis Kelce	TE		98	98	12.33%
2	MIN	TJ Hockenson	TE		78	78	11.31%
3	BAL	Mark Andrews	TE		81	81	10.41%
4	NYG	Darren Waller	TE		78	78	10.09%
5	ATL	Kyle Pitts	TE		69	69	9.95%
6	NO	Taysom Hill	TE	80	13	93	9.80%
7	PHI	Dallas Goedert	TE		76	76	9.05%
8	JAX	Evan Engram	TE	3	67	70	8.76%
9	LAR	Tyler Higbee	TE		62	62	8.70%
10	PIT	Pat Freiermuth	TE		66	66	8.69%
11	SF	George Kittle	TE		61	61	8.33%
12	CLE	David Njoku	TE	3	61	64	8.00%
13	HOU	Dalton Schultz	TE		55	55	7.69%
14	GB	Luke Musgrave	TE		51	51	7.58%
15	DAL	Jake Ferguson	TE		55	55	7.01%
16	NE	Hunter Henry	TE		47	47	6.93%
17	LAC	Gerald Everett	TE		53	53	6.76%
18	CAR	Hayden Hurst	TE		45	45	6.73%
19	NYJ	Tyler Conklin	TE		50	50	6.48%
20	BUF	Dalton Kincaid	TE		48	48	6.48%
21	CHI	Cole Kmet	TE		45	45	6.44%
22	TEN	Chigoziem Okonkwo	TE		45	45	6.44%
23	TB	Cade Otton	TE		44	44	6.44%
24	SEA	Noah Fant	TE		43	43	6.25%
25	ARI	Trey McBride	TE		44	44	6.13%