2023 Projected Opportunity Share

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Opportunity Share is the amount of rushing attempts + targets a player gets divided by the total amount of plays ran within his offense. The higher the opportunity share, the more involved they are in their offense. In this article by Kenny Hyttenhove, we find out that touches have an 92% correlation to PPR Points for RBs, 95% for WRs and 98% for TE. In that article, I used Targets for WR and TE, since that is the majority of their opportunities, whereas the RB chart actually listed Touches. Opportunity Share is a useful stat for all three, and is easily my favorite of the 3 stats above. Below you will find our projected opportunity share’s for 2023.

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Running Backs: (92% correlation)

Wide Receivers: (95% correlation)

Rank		Player	Pos.	RuAtt	Rec	Targets	Touches	Opp. Share	PPR	1/2 PPR	Standard
1	TEN	Derrick Henry	RB1	320	30	39	350	37.01%	271	256.0	241
2	LV	Josh Jacobs	RB2	305	44	55	349	34.78%	271	249.0	227
3	ATL	Bijan Robinson	RB3	305	39	51	344	34.73%	295.5	276.0	256.5
4	NYG	Saquon Barkley	RB4	280	60	80	340	33.64%	285	255.0	225.0
5	IND	Jonathan Taylor	RB5	315	37	50	352	32.44%	284	265.5	247
6	CLE	Nick Chubb	RB6	305	33	40	338	30.40%	284	267.5	251
7	NE	Rhamondre Stevenson	RB7	235	62	75	297	30.24%	273	242.0	211
8	SF	Christian McCaffrey	RB8	220	74	92	294	29.30%	325.5	288.5	251.5
9	HOU	Dameon Pierce	RB9	255	35	45	290	29.13%	226	208.5	191
10	PIT	Najee Harris	RB10	255	40	50	295	28.11%	236	216.0	196
11	TB	Rachaad White	RB11	215	55	70	270	27.80%	216.5	189.0	161.5
12	LAC	Austin Ekeler	RB12	195	91	115	286	27.68%	335	289.5	244
13	SEA	Kenneth Walker III	RB13	245	31	40	276	27.67%	227	211.5	196
14	DAL	Tony Pollard	RB14	245	45	60	290	27.48%	276	253.5	231
15	CIN	Joe Mixon	RB15	205	57	73	262	26.99%	228.5	200.0	171.5
16	NYJ	Breece Hall	RB16	235	36	49	271	26.92%	234	216.0	198
17	CAR	Miles Sanders	RB17	225	37	45	262	26.60%	213	194.5	176
18	BAL	JK Dobbins	RB18	252	24	32	276	25.70%	231	219.0	207
19	ARI	James Conner	RB19	215	43	55	258	25.59%	217	195.5	174
20	LAR	Cam Akers	RB20	225	30	40	255	25.36%	206	191.0	176
21	GB	Aaron Jones	RB21	195	50	64	245	24.67%	227	202.0	177
22	MIN	Alexander Mattison	RB22	225	32	39	257	24.22%	206	190.0	174
23	DET	David Montgomery	RB23	245	15	20	260	24.20%	205	197.5	190
24	JAX	Travis Etienne	RB24	195	45	58	240	23.76%	222.5	200.0	177.5
25	BUF	James Cook	RB25	185	46	58	231	22.92%	215.5	192.5	169.5
26	WAS	Brian Robinson	RB26	240	13	19	253	22.82%	168.5	162.0	155.5
27	GB	AJ Dillon	RB27	190	34	44	224	22.29%	189	172.0	155
28	KC	Isiah Pacheco	RB28	215	19	25	234	21.72%	188.5	179.0	169.5
29	DEN	Javonte Williams	RB29	175	34	46	209	20.75%	187.5	170.5	153.5
30	DET	Jahmyr Gibbs	RB30	128	68	90	196	19.91%	256	222.0	188
31	NO	Alvin Kamara	RB31	145	43	58	188	19.80%	193	171.5	150
32	DEN	Samaje Perine	RB32	150	34	45	184	18.31%	173	156.0	139
33	MIN	Justin Jefferson	WR1	5	121	180	126	16.97%	355	294.5	234
34	LAR	Cooper Kupp	WR2	7	116	170	123	16.94%	324.5	266.5	208.5
35	MIA	Tyreek Hill	WR3	10	108	160	118	16.67%	324	270.0	216
36	MIA	Raheem Mostert	RB33	135	23	32	158	16.37%	151.5	140.0	128.5
37	WAS	Antonio Gibson	RB34	120	48	65	168	16.30%	165	141.0	117
38	PHI	D’Andre Swift	RB35	145	27	34	172	16.20%	140	126.5	113
39	LV	Davante Adams	WR4	2	99	160	101	15.65%	272	222.5	173
40	BUF	Stefon Diggs	WR5	3	106	160	109	15.38%	301.5	248.5	195.5
41	NYJ	Garrett Wilson	WR6	5	101	157	106	15.36%	292	241.5	191
42	CIN	Ja’Marr Chase	WR7	7	107	151	114	15.34%	327	273.5	220
43	SF	Deebo Samuel	WR8	45	68	113	113	14.84%	230.5	196.5	162.5
44	PIT	Diontae Johnson	WR9	10	95	150	105	14.75%	233	185.5	138
45	DET	Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR10	10	108	150	118	14.61%	269	215.0	161
46	NO	Chris Olave	WR11	5	94	144	99	14.54%	274	227.0	180
47	DAL	CeeDee Lamb	WR12	10	103	150	113	14.41%	293	241.5	190
48	CHI	Khalil Herbert	RB36	130	12	15	142	14.29%	109	103.0	97
49	CHI	D’Onta Foreman	RB37	135	8	10	143	14.29%	113	109.0	105
50	MIA	De’Von Achane	RB38	115	21	28	136	14.02%	117	106.5	96
51	PIT	Jaylen Warren	RB39	105	30	40	135	13.36%	132	117.0	102
52	TB	Chris Godwin	WR13	5	80	131	85	13.27%	220	180.0	140
53	JAX	Christian Kirk	WR14	6	86	135	92	13.24%	236	193.0	150
54	MIA	Jaylen Waddle	WR15	5	83	130	88	13.24%	265	223.5	182
55	CLE	Jerome Ford	RB40	105	12	45	117	13.22%	82	76.0	70
56	TEN	Treylon Burks	WR16	10	69	118	79	13.20%	220.5	186.0	151.5
57	KC	Travis Kelce	TE1		102	145	102	13.12%	289.5	238.5	187.5
58	SEA	DK Metcalf	WR17	2	84	132	86	13.01%	258	216.0	174
59	ARI	Marquise Brown	WR18	5	81	132	86	12.99%	206	165.5	125
60	MIA	Jeff Wilson Jr.	RB41	105	18	25	123	12.75%	106.5	97.5	88.5
61	JAX	Calvin Ridley	WR19	3	83	132	86	12.68%	234.5	193.0	151.5
62	PHI	AJ Brown	WR20	2	85	138	87	12.67%	284.5	242.0	199.5
63	HOU	Devin Singletary	RB42	95	25	35	120	12.62%	100	87.5	75
64	SEA	Zach Charbonnet	RB43	105	20	25	125	12.62%	96	86.0	76
65	SF	Elijah Mitchell	RB44	120	9	12	129	12.39%	95.5	91.0	86.5
66	CHI	Roschon Johnson	RB45	95	23	30	118	12.32%	95	83.5	72
67	ATL	Drake London	WR21	2	81	123	83	12.20%	222.5	182.0	141.5
68	PHI	DeVonta Smith	WR22	3	93	130	96	12.04%	264	217.5	171
69	NO	Jamaal Williams	RB46	105	13	18	118	12.00%	111	104.5	98
70	WAS	Terry McLaurin	WR23	10	79	125	89	11.89%	234	194.5	155
71	CHI	DJ Moore	WR24	5	70	115	75	11.82%	216.5	181.5	146.5
72	CAR	Chuba Hubbard	RB47	90	24	30	114	11.82%	115	103.0	91
73	JAX	Tank Bigsby	RB48	105	16	20	121	11.74%	115	107.0	99
74	LAC	Joshua Kelley	RB49	100	20	30	120	11.61%	92.5	82.5	72.5
75	CIN	Tee Higgins	WR25		79	119	79	11.55%	236.5	197.0	157.5
76	IND	Michael Pittman Jr.	WR26	5	81	124	86	11.47%	208.5	168.0	127.5
77	CLE	Amari Cooper	WR27		81	130	81	11.45%	241.5	201.0	160.5
78	TEN	Tyjae Spears	RB50	75	26	36	101	11.44%	111.5	98.5	85.5
79	GB	Christian Watson	WR28	10	66	110	76	11.43%	225	192.0	159
80	LAC	Keenan Allen	WR29	3	88	125	91	11.43%	234	190.0	146
81	DEN	Jerry Jeudy	WR30	5	76	116	81	11.36%	220	182.0	144
82	ATL	Tyler Allgeier	RB51	105	7	11	112	11.32%	80.5	77.0	73.5
83	TB	Mike Evans	WR31		67	114	67	11.12%	198.5	165.0	131.5
84	PIT	George Pickens	WR32	5	65	115	70	11.06%	201	168.5	136
85	MIN	Jordan Addison	WR33	5	78	115	83	11.01%	202.5	163.5	124.5
86	MIN	TJ Hockenson	TE2		76	120	76	11.01%	197	159.0	121
87	BAL	Mark Andrews	TE3		84	120	84	10.86%	231.5	189.5	147.5
88	KC	Jerick McKinnon	RB52	55	50	65	105	10.86%	144	119.0	94
89	BUF	Damien Harris	RB53	95	14	20	109	10.85%	94.5	87.5	80.5
90	SEA	Tyler Lockett	WR34	3	78	108	81	10.78%	220.5	181.5	142.5
91	PHI	Rashaad Penny	RB54	115	3	4	118	10.77%	91	89.5	88
92	ARI	Keaontay Ingram	RB55	85	18	25	103	10.43%	83	74.0	65
93	SF	Brandon Aiyuk	WR35	5	70	106	75	10.42%	200	165.0	130
94	NYG	Darren Waller	TE4		71	110	71	10.28%	190.5	155.0	119.5
95	NO	Kendre Miller	RB56	80	18	24	98	10.15%	86	77.0	68
96	WAS	Jahan Dotson	WR36	5	71	110	76	10.13%	203	167.5	132
97	LV	Jakobi Meyers	WR37	4	72	100	76	10.05%	183	147.0	111
98	PHI	Kenneth Gainwell	RB57	80	25	30	105	9.95%	103	90.5	78
99	DAL	Malik Davis	RB58	95	11	15	106	9.91%	85	79.5	74
100	NE	JuJu Smith-Schuster	WR38		66	100	66	9.76%	167.5	134.5	101.5

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Tight Ends: (98% correlation)

Rank		Player	RuAtt	Rec	Targets	Touches	Opp. Share	PPR	1/2 PPR	Standard
1	KC	Travis Kelce		102	145	102	13.12%	289.5	238.5	187.5
2	MIN	TJ Hockenson		76	120	76	11.01%	197	159.0	121
3	BAL	Mark Andrews		84	120	84	10.86%	231.5	189.5	147.5
4	NYG	Darren Waller		71	110	71	10.28%	190.5	155.0	119.5
5	ATL	Kyle Pitts		66	100	66	9.76%	183.5	150.5	117.5
6	PIT	Pat Freiermuth		70	105	70	9.68%	176.5	141.5	106.5
7	JAX	Evan Engram	3	67	92	70	8.92%	168.5	135.0	101.5
8	TEN	Chigoziem Okonkwo		61	86	61	8.87%	169.5	139.0	108.5
9	LAR	Tyler Higbee		62	90	62	8.61%	156.5	125.5	94.5
10	SF	George Kittle		65	90	65	8.45%	180.5	148.0	115.5
11	PHI	Dallas Goedert		70	92	70	8.33%	187.5	152.5	117.5
12	NO	Taysom Hill	70	9	15	79	8.29%	88.4	78.5	79.4
13	NO	Juwan Johnson		58	83	58	8.10%	159	130.0	101
14	HOU	Dalton Schultz		55	80	55	7.77%	138	110.5	83
15	CLE	David Njoku	3	61	85	64	7.75%	161.5	131.0	100.5
16	NYJ	Tyler Conklin		51	77	51	7.30%	127.5	102.0	76.5
17	LAC	Gerald Everett		56	80	56	7.14%	132.5	104.5	76.5
18	SEA	Noah Fant		45	68	45	6.60%	111.5	89.0	66.5
19	CAR	Hayden Hurst		42	65	42	6.40%	104.5	83.5	62.5
20	CHI	Cole Kmet		46	65	46	6.40%	126.5	103.5	80.5
21	TB	Cade Otton		44	65	44	6.34%	118.5	96.5	74.5
22	DAL	Jake Ferguson		49	70	49	6.31%	123.5	99.0	74.5
23	CIN	Irv Smith Jr.		45	60	45	5.83%	111.5	89.0	66.5
24	IND	Jelani Woods		40	65	40	5.78%	113.5	93.5	73.5
25	BUF	Dawson Knox		41	60	41	5.66%	106	85.5	65
26	DET	Sam LaPorta		41	60	41	5.48%	111.5	91.0	70.5
27	ARI	Trey McBride		38	57	38	5.40%	96.5	77.5	58.5
28	NE	Hunter Henry		38	55	38	5.37%	96.5	77.5	58.5
29	BAL	Isaiah Likely		39	58	39	5.25%	98.5	79.0	59.5
30	DEN	Greg Dulcich		37	55	37	5.16%	96.5	78.0	59.5