This article is all about projected opportunity shares for the 2020 season. (by @theFellowKGB)
Opportunity share is the number of rushing attempts and targets a player gets divided by the total number of a team’s offensive plays, resulting in a percentage of opportunity. For QBs, we add their number of pass attempts into the mix. We want to target players who are projecting to get a lot of opportunities, so I hope this helps you with your 2020 Draft Prep and beyond!
Check out the 2019 Opportunity Report here. These 2019 reports are very helpful when considering our 2020 projections for players. The Opportunity Share might be most important for running backs, but we see important correlations at the WR position and a very direct correlation at the TE position. I’m not sure how helpful these are for Quarterbacks just yet, but I highly recommend looking deeply at all positions through this stat when considering your 2020 selections.
QBs: 1-12
| Team | Player | PaAtt | RuAtt | Total | Opp. Share |
| ATL | Matt Ryan | 648 | 32 | 680 | 66.47% |
| ARI | Kyler Murray | 565 | 90 | 655 | 66.26% |
| CIN | Joe Burrow | 615 | 65 | 680 | 65.70% |
| JAX | Gardner Minshew | 575 | 75 | 650 | 65.66% |
| KC | Patrick Mahomes | 585 | 60 | 645 | 64.82% |
| PIT | Ben Roethlisberger | 625 | 35 | 660 | 63.46% |
| NYG | Daniel Jones | 570 | 60 | 630 | 63.00% |
| LAR | Jared Goff | 611 | 35 | 646 | 62.72% |
| HOU | Deshaun Watson | 535 | 85 | 620 | 62.69% |
| CAR | Teddy Bridgewater | 580 | 45 | 625 | 62.13% |
| DAL | Dak Prescott | 600 | 55 | 655 | 62.09% |
| GB | Aaron Rodgers | 585 | 45 | 630 | 61.95% |
QBs: 13-24
| Team | Player | PaAtt | RuAtt | Total | Opp. Share |
| DET | Matt Stafford | 585 | 30 | 615 | 61.81% |
| TB | Tom Brady | 605 | 25 | 630 | 61.58% |
| NYJ | Sam Darnold | 545 | 45 | 590 | 61.46% |
| SEA | Russell Wilson | 530 | 80 | 610 | 60.70% |
| BUF | Josh Allen | 496 | 105 | 601 | 60.28% |
| DEN | Drew Lock | 525 | 48 | 573 | 59.69% |
| WAS | Dwayne Haskins | 521 | 45 | 566 | 59.58% |
| IND | Philip Rivers | 575 | 15 | 590 | 58.36% |
| TEN | Ryan Tannehill | 455 | 61 | 516 | 57.02% |
| NO | Drew Brees | 540 | 30 | 570 | 57.00% |
| PHI | Carson Wentz | 560 | 55 | 615 | 56.94% |
| CLE | Baker Mayfield | 546 | 32 | 578 | 56.61% |
QBs: 25-32
| Team | Player | PaAtt | RuAtt | Total | Opp. Share |
| BAL | Lamar Jackson | 425 | 170 | 595 | 55.87% |
| LV | Derek Carr | 525 | 30 | 555 | 55.78% |
| CHI | Nick Foles | 512 | 35 | 547 | 54.97% |
| NE | Jarrett Stidham | 535 | 40 | 575 | 54.50% |
| MIN | Kirk Cousins | 480 | 35 | 515 | 53.65% |
| SF | Jimmy Garoppolo | 468 | 45 | 513 | 52.19% |
| LAC | Tyrod Taylor | 385 | 75 | 460 | 48.32% |
| MIA | Tua Tagovailoa | 290 | 35 | 325 | 33.27% |
* please note that projecting QBs is difficult. Many QBs will fail to play a full 16 game season, so this is more of an optimistic view with each starting QB representing nearly a full passing opportunity per team.
Recap:
Target QBs with 600+ passing and rushing attempts (avoid turnover prone QBs).
Target QBs with 75+ rushing attempts.
Thanks for reading!
– Kyle (@theFellowKGB)
I’ll be using Opportunity Share % as a tool for my drafts in 2020 in tandem with Yard Share %. Check out my 2019 Yard Share % article and Projected 2020 Yard Share %.
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