This article is all about projected opportunity shares for the 2020 season. (by @theFellowKGB)
Opportunity share is the number of rushing attempts and targets a player gets divided by the total number of a team’s offensive plays, resulting in a percentage of opportunity. For QBs, we add their number of pass attempts into the mix. We want to target players who are projecting to get a lot of opportunities, so I hope this helps you with your 2020 Draft Prep and beyond!
Check out the 2019 Opportunity Report here. These 2019 reports are very helpful when considering our 2020 projections for players. The Opportunity Share might be most important for running backs, but we see important correlations at the WR position and a very direct correlation at the TE position. I’m not sure how helpful these are for Quarterbacks just yet, but I highly recommend looking deeply at all positions through this stat when considering your 2020 selections.
TEs: 1-12
| Team | Player | RuAtt | Targets | Opp. Share | 2019 |
| KC | Travis Kelce | 128 | 12.86% | 14.68% | |
| PHI | Zach Ertz | 122 | 11.30% | 12.65% | |
| SF | George Kittle | 3 | 105 | 10.99% | 11.48% |
| LV | Darren Waller | 1 | 99 | 10.05% | 12.40% |
| NYG | Evan Engram | 99 | 9.90% | 7.47% | |
| MIA | Mike Gesicki | 95 | 9.72% | 9.23% | |
| LAR | Tyler Higbee | 98 | 9.51% | 8.71% | |
| BAL | Mark Andrews | 101 | 9.48% | 9.46% | |
| LAC | Hunter Henry | 86 | 9.03% | 7.89% | |
| ATL | Hayden Hurst | 91 | 8.90% | 3.76% | |
| TEN | Jonnu Smith | 3 | 76 | 8.73% | 5.38% |
| CAR | Ian Thomas | 86 | 8.55% | 2.94% |
Notes:
In 2019, we found out that a number of at least 80 targets is required to finish as a TE1, unless they score a lot of touchdowns like Jared Cook last year (65 targets) or Hunter Henry (76 targets).
The top 12 TE’s in opportunity share last year were all above 7.89%, with all 12 of them finishing in the top 13 in final PPR rankings. This percentage suggests that we should be looking for TE’s with the potential to be at 8.00% or above.
TEs: 13-24
| Team | Player | RuAtt | Targets | Opp. Share | 2019 |
| DAL | Blake Jarwin | 89 | 8.44% | 3.92% | |
| PHI | Dallas Goedert | 91 | 8.43% | 8.15% | |
| CLE | Austin Hooper | 83 | 8.13% | 9.27% | |
| DET | TJ Hockenson | 80 | 8.04% | 6.18% | |
| TB | Rob Gronkowski | 81 | 7.92% | ||
| IND | Jack Doyle | 78 | 7.72% | 7.32% | |
| DEN | Noah Fant | 74 | 7.71% | 7.56% | |
| NO | Jared Cook | 74 | 7.40% | 6.59% | |
| NYJ | Chris Herndon | 69 | 7.19% | .22% | |
| BUF | Dawson Knox | 71 | 7.12% | 5.21% | |
| PIT | Eric Ebron | 72 | 6.92% | 5.28% | |
| JAX | Tyler Eifert | 65 | 6.57% | 6.29% |
Recap:
Target TEs who project to get 80+ targets.
Target TEs above 8.00% opportunity share.
Thanks for reading!
– Kyle (@theFellowKGB)
I’ll be using Opportunity Share % as a tool for my drafts in 2020 in tandem with Yard Share %. Check out my 2019 Yard Share % article and Projected 2020 Yard Share %.
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