2020 Opportunity Share WRs

This article is all about projected opportunity shares for the 2020 season. (by @theFellowKGB)

Opportunity share is the number of rushing attempts and targets a player gets divided by the total number of a team’s offensive plays, resulting in a percentage of opportunity.  For QBs, we add their number of pass attempts into the mix.  We want to target players who are projecting to get a lot of opportunities, so I hope this helps you with your 2020 Draft Prep and beyond!

Check out the 2019 Opportunity Report here.  These 2019 reports are very helpful when considering our 2020 projections for players.  The Opportunity Share might be most important for running backs, but we see important correlations at the WR position and a very direct correlation at the TE position.  I’m not sure how helpful these are for Quarterbacks just yet, but I highly recommend looking deeply at all positions through this stat when considering your 2020 selections.

QBs     RBs     WRs     TEs

WRs: 1-12

Team Player RuAtt Targets Opp. Share 2019
NO Michael Thomas 1 168 16.90% 18.86%
GB Davante Adams 1 166 16.42% 12.91%
CHI Allen Robinson 1 152 15.30% 15.90%
ATL Julio Jones 2 151 14.96% 15.20%
LAR Robert Woods 15 137 14.76% 15.10%
CAR DJ Moore 5 141 14.51% 13.84%
LAC Keenan Allen 2 136 14.50% 15.78%
MIN Adam Thielen 3 135 14.38% 5.52%
ARI DeAndre Hopkins 2 139 14.34% 15.91%
PIT Juju Smith-Schuster 2 146 14.23% 7.73%
KC Tyreek Hill 7 131 13.87% 10.40%
CLE Odell Beckham Jr. 1 139 13.71% 14.81%

Notes:

Per the 2019 Opportunity Report, we saw that WRs over 15% are very likely to finish as top end WR1s.  All WRs last year over 150+ targets finished within the top 8 in PPR.  The threshold of 125+ opportunities and 6+ TDs typically yields WR1s.  Every WR over 125+ opportunities finished WR25 or better.

WRs: 13-24

Team Player RuAtt Targets Opp. Share 2019
TB Chris Godwin 2 138 13.69% 11.74%
DEN Courtland Sutton 3 125 13.33% 14.02%
NE Julian Edelman 5 133 13.27% 15.28%
NYJ Jamison Crowder 1 124 13.02% 13.61%
LAR Cooper Kupp 2 131 12.91% 13.26%
TB Mike Evans 132 12.90% 11.36%
WAS Terry McLaurin 1 121 12.84% 11.14%
JAX DJ Chark 126 12.73% 12.27%
TEN AJ Brown 5 109 12.60% 9.74%
MIA DeVante Parker 120 12.28% 13.28%
DET Kenny Golladay 121 12.16% 12.16%
ATL Calvin Ridley 3 120 12.02% 9.08%

More Notes:

WR with more than 110 opportunities are very likely to finish as WR3s or better.

Target WR3s with roughly 95+ projected opportunities.  WRs over 10% opportunity share are likely to be WR3s or better. Only 4 of 36 finished under 10%.

WRs: 25-50:

Team Player RuAtt Targets Opp. Share 2019
PIT Diontae Johnson 5 119 11.92% 10.61%
BUF Stefon Diggs 3 115 11.84% 10.62%
NYG Golden Tate 1 117 11.80% 9.05%
DAL Amari Cooper 1 122 11.66% 11.47%
SEA Tyler Lockett 5 111 11.54% 11.42%
IND TY Hilton 115 11.37% 6.91%
CIN AJ Green 117 11.30%
CIN Tyler Boyd 3 114 11.30% 15.18%
SEA DK Metcalf 3 109 11.14% 10.22%
DAL Michael Gallup 1 115 11.00% 10.80%
NYG Sterling Shepard 5 104 10.90% 9.37%
SF Deebo Samuel 12 93 10.68% 9.73%
ARI Christian Kirk 5 99 10.51% 12.66%
DET Marvin Jones 1 103 10.45% 9.75%
BUF John Brown 2 102 10.43% 12.07%
NYJ Breshad Perriman 99 10.31% 6.93%
LAC Mike Williams 97 10.19% 9.45%
CHI Anthony Miller 2 98 10.00% 8.82%
ARI Larry Fitzgerald 97 9.80% 11.80%
DEN Jerry Jeudy 2 90 9.58%
DAL CeeDee Lamb 100 9.48%
NYG Darius Slayton 94 9.40% 8.84%
HOU Randall Cobb 91 9.20% 8.32%
JAX Dede Westbrook 5 85 9.09% 10.84%
CAR Curtis Samuel 10 81 9.05% 12.17%
CLE Jarvis Landry 92 9.01% 14.91%

Recap:

Stud WR1s require roughly 150+ targets and over 15% opportunity share.

Target WR1s who are projected over 125 targets and rush attempts with 6+ TDs.  Every WR with 125+ opportunities finished above WR25.

Target WR2/3s with roughly 110+ opportunities.  The closer they are to our 125 mark from above, the likelier they are to be WR2s.

Target WR3s with roughly 95+ projected opportunities.  WRs over 10% opportunity share are likely to be WR3s or better.  Only 4 of 36 finished under 10%.

Thanks for reading!

– Kyle (@theFellowKGB)

 

I’ll be using Opportunity Share % as a tool for my drafts in 2020 in tandem with Yard Share %.  Check out my  2019 Yard Share % article and Projected 2020 Yard Share %.

 

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