This article is all about projected opportunity shares for the 2020 season. (by @theFellowKGB)
Opportunity share is the number of rushing attempts and targets a player gets divided by the total number of a team’s offensive plays, resulting in a percentage of opportunity. For QBs, we add their number of pass attempts into the mix. We want to target players who are projecting to get a lot of opportunities, so I hope this helps you with your 2020 Draft Prep and beyond!
Check out the 2019 Opportunity Report here. These 2019 reports are very helpful when considering our 2020 projections for players. The Opportunity Share might be most important for running backs, but we see important correlations at the WR position and a very direct correlation at the TE position. I’m not sure how helpful these are for Quarterbacks just yet, but I highly recommend looking deeply at all positions through this stat when considering your 2020 selections.
* These are my projected 2020 Opportunity shares.
QBs RBs WRs TEs
RBs: 1-12
| Team | Player | RuAtt | Targets | Opp. Share | 2019 |
| CAR | Christian McCaffrey | 275 | 136 | 40.85% | 42.30% |
| TEN | Derrick Henry | 310 | 28 | 37.35% | 36.62% |
| NYG | Saquon Barkley | 269 | 95 | 36.40% | 30.53% |
| NYJ | Le’Veon Bell | 257 | 84 | 35.52% | 35.73% |
| DAL | Ezekiel Elliott | 295 | 67 | 34.31% | 35.56% |
| LV | Josh Jacobs | 295 | 38 | 33.47% | 28.02% |
| MIN | Dalvin Cook | 260 | 60 | 33.33% | 33.23% |
| CLE | Nick Chubb | 295 | 39 | 32.71% | 37.23% |
| CIN | Joe Mixon | 285 | 48 | 32.17% | 32.27% |
| JAX | Leonard Fournette | 245 | 70 | 31.82% | 37.32% |
| SEA | Chris Carson | 255 | 45 | 29.85% | 32.57% |
| GB | Aaron Jones | 230 | 71 | 29.60% | 30.89% |
Notes:
Per the 2019 Opportunity Report, we saw that RBs over 30% are very likely to finish as an RB1, as well as RBs with 217+ carries and 44+ targets. The final RB1 criteria is 250+ carries. All 12 RBs above fit one of the three criteria and are the only 12 to do so.
RBs: 13-25
| Team | Player | RuAtt | Targets | Opp. Share | 2019 |
| NO | Alvin Kamara | 192 | 99 | 29.10% | 27.28% |
| CHI | David Montgomery | 245 | 36 | 28.24% | 28.41% |
| PIT | James Conner | 230 | 59 | 27.79% | 17.02% |
| DEN | Melvin Gordon | 210 | 53 | 27.40% | 22.53% |
| HOU | David Johnson | 235 | 31 | 26.90% | 15.26% |
| ARI | Kenyan Drake | 205 | 57 | 26.46% | 17.10% |
| PHI | Miles Sanders | 211 | 72 | 26.20% | 22.68% |
| LAC | Austin Ekeler | 145 | 101 | 25.84% | 24.92% |
| ATL | Todd Gurley | 195 | 61 | 25.02% | 26.33% |
| NE | Sony Michel | 245 | 14 | 24.55% | 25.02% |
| KC | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 155 | 68 | 22.41% | |
| LAR | Cam Akers | 185 | 44 | 22.23% |
More Notes:
Per the 2019 Opportunity Report, we saw that RBs over 22% are very likely to finish as RB2s or better, as well as RBs with 200+ carries and 25+ targets.
Any RB with 80+ targets is also very likely to be an RB2 with upside.
Our final threshold for an RB2 is 160+ carries and 55+ targets.
RBs: 25-50
| Team | Player | RuAtt | Targets | Opp. Share | 2019 |
| TB | Ronald Jones | 186 | 39 | 21.99% | 20.40% |
| IND | Jonathan Taylor | 185 | 32 | 21.46% | |
| WAS | Derrius Guice | 165 | 33 | 20.84% | 6.11% |
| SF | Raheem Mostert | 179 | 24 | 20.65% | 16.29% |
| BUF | Zack Moss | 175 | 29 | 20.46% | |
| BUF | Devin Singletary | 170 | 32 | 20.26% | 19.63% |
| TB | Ke’Shawn Vaughn | 165 | 33 | 19.35% | |
| DET | DeAndre Swift | 160 | 29 | 18.99% | |
| CLE | Kareem Hunt | 125 | 64 | 18.51% | 9.33% |
| MIA | Matt Breida | 135 | 45 | 18.42% | 14.85% |
| SF | Tevin Coleman | 147 | 34 | 18.41% | 17.11% |
| BAL | JK Dobbins | 165 | 27 | 18.03% | |
| DET | Kerryon Johnson | 140 | 39 | 17.99% | 13.42% |
| BAL | Mark Ingram | 165 | 24 | 17.75% | 22.30% |
| CHI | Tarik Cohen | 75 | 101 | 17.60% | 17.23% |
| MIA | Jordan Howard | 145 | 25 | 17.40% | 12.46% |
| HOU | Duke Johnson | 95 | 65 | 16.18% | 14.98% |
| KC | Damien Williams | 125 | 29 | 15.48% | 15.86% |
| IND | Marlon Mack | 140 | 15 | 15.33% | 26.83% |
| DEN | Phillip Lindsay | 112 | 28 | 14.58% | 29.79% |
| MIN | Alexander Mattison | 115 | 20 | 14.06% | 11.89% |
| NO | Latavius Murray | 115 | 24 | 13.90% | 19.17% |
| ARI | Chase Edmonds | 105 | 31 | 13.74% | 8.77% |
| NE | James White | 65 | 75 | 13.27% | 15.28% |
| WAS | Adrian Peterson | 110 | 16 | 13.26% | 28.02% |
| LAC | Justin Jackson | 95 | 25 | 12.61% | 4.15% |
Recap:
1st Threshold (RB1s) = 217+ carries and 44+ targets
2nd Threshold (RB1s) = 250+ carries
3rd Threshold (RB2s w/ upside) = 200+ rushing attempts and 25+ targets
4th Threshold (PPR Backs) = 80+ targets
5th Threshold (Strong RB2s with upside) = 160+ rushing attempts and 55+ targets
Any RB with 30%+ opportunity share is likely an RB1.
Any RB with 22%+ opportunity share is likely an RB2 at worst.
Thanks for reading!
– Kyle (@theFellowKGB)
I’ll be using Opportunity Share % as a tool for my drafts in 2020 in tandem with Yard Share %. Check out my 2019 Yard Share % article and Projected 2020 Yard Share %.
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