2020 Opportunity Share RBs

This article is all about projected opportunity shares for the 2020 season. (by @theFellowKGB)

Opportunity share is the number of rushing attempts and targets a player gets divided by the total number of a team’s offensive plays, resulting in a percentage of opportunity.  For QBs, we add their number of pass attempts into the mix.  We want to target players who are projecting to get a lot of opportunities, so I hope this helps you with your 2020 Draft Prep and beyond!

Check out the 2019 Opportunity Report here.  These 2019 reports are very helpful when considering our 2020 projections for players.  The Opportunity Share might be most important for running backs, but we see important correlations at the WR position and a very direct correlation at the TE position.  I’m not sure how helpful these are for Quarterbacks just yet, but I highly recommend looking deeply at all positions through this stat when considering your 2020 selections.

* These are my projected 2020 Opportunity shares.

QBs     RBs     WRs     TEs

RBs: 1-12

Team Player RuAtt Targets Opp. Share 2019
CAR Christian McCaffrey 275 136 40.85% 42.30%
TEN Derrick Henry 310 28 37.35% 36.62%
NYG Saquon Barkley 269 95 36.40% 30.53%
NYJ Le’Veon Bell 257 84 35.52% 35.73%
DAL Ezekiel Elliott 295 67 34.31% 35.56%
LV Josh Jacobs 295 38 33.47% 28.02%
MIN Dalvin Cook 260 60 33.33% 33.23%
CLE Nick Chubb 295 39 32.71% 37.23%
CIN Joe Mixon 285 48 32.17% 32.27%
JAX Leonard Fournette 245 70 31.82% 37.32%
SEA Chris Carson 255 45 29.85% 32.57%
GB Aaron Jones 230 71 29.60% 30.89%

Notes:

Per the 2019 Opportunity Report, we saw that RBs over 30% are very likely to finish as an RB1, as well as RBs with 217+ carries and 44+ targets.  The final RB1 criteria is 250+ carries.  All 12 RBs above fit one of the three criteria and are the only 12 to do so.

RBs: 13-25

Team Player RuAtt Targets Opp. Share 2019
NO Alvin Kamara 192 99 29.10% 27.28%
CHI David Montgomery 245 36 28.24% 28.41%
PIT James Conner 230 59 27.79% 17.02%
DEN Melvin Gordon 210 53 27.40% 22.53%
HOU David Johnson 235 31 26.90% 15.26%
ARI Kenyan Drake 205 57 26.46% 17.10%
PHI Miles Sanders 211 72 26.20% 22.68%
LAC Austin Ekeler 145 101 25.84% 24.92%
ATL Todd Gurley 195 61 25.02% 26.33%
NE Sony Michel 245 14 24.55% 25.02%
KC Clyde Edwards-Helaire 155 68 22.41%
LAR Cam Akers 185 44 22.23%

More Notes:

Per the 2019 Opportunity Report, we saw that RBs over 22% are very likely to finish as RB2s or better, as well as RBs with 200+ carries and 25+ targets.

Any RB with 80+ targets is also very likely to be an RB2 with upside.

Our final threshold for an RB2 is 160+ carries and 55+ targets.

RBs: 25-50

Team Player RuAtt Targets Opp. Share 2019
TB Ronald Jones 186 39 21.99% 20.40%
IND Jonathan Taylor 185 32 21.46%
WAS Derrius Guice 165 33 20.84% 6.11%
SF Raheem Mostert 179 24 20.65% 16.29%
BUF Zack Moss 175 29 20.46%
BUF Devin Singletary 170 32 20.26% 19.63%
TB Ke’Shawn Vaughn 165 33 19.35%
DET DeAndre Swift 160 29 18.99%
CLE Kareem Hunt 125 64 18.51% 9.33%
MIA Matt Breida 135 45 18.42% 14.85%
SF Tevin Coleman 147 34 18.41% 17.11%
BAL JK Dobbins 165 27 18.03%
DET Kerryon Johnson 140 39 17.99% 13.42%
BAL Mark Ingram 165 24 17.75% 22.30%
CHI Tarik Cohen 75 101 17.60% 17.23%
MIA Jordan Howard 145 25 17.40% 12.46%
HOU Duke Johnson 95 65 16.18% 14.98%
KC Damien Williams 125 29 15.48% 15.86%
IND Marlon Mack 140 15 15.33% 26.83%
DEN Phillip Lindsay 112 28 14.58% 29.79%
MIN Alexander Mattison 115 20 14.06% 11.89%
NO Latavius Murray 115 24 13.90% 19.17%
ARI Chase Edmonds 105 31 13.74% 8.77%
NE James White 65 75 13.27% 15.28%
WAS Adrian Peterson 110 16 13.26% 28.02%
LAC Justin Jackson 95 25 12.61% 4.15%

Recap:

1st Threshold (RB1s) = 217+ carries and 44+ targets

2nd Threshold (RB1s) = 250+ carries

3rd Threshold (RB2s w/ upside) = 200+ rushing attempts and 25+ targets

4th Threshold (PPR Backs) = 80+ targets

5th Threshold (Strong RB2s with upside) = 160+ rushing attempts and 55+ targets

Any RB with 30%+ opportunity share is likely an RB1.

Any RB with 22%+ opportunity share is likely an RB2 at worst.

Thanks for reading!

– Kyle (@theFellowKGB)

 

I’ll be using Opportunity Share % as a tool for my drafts in 2020 in tandem with Yard Share %.  Check out my  2019 Yard Share % article and Projected 2020 Yard Share %.

 

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