2020 Opportunity Report RBs

This article is all about opportunity shares from the 2020 season. (by @theFellowKGB)

Opportunity share is the number of rushing attempts and targets a player gets divided by the total number of a team’s offensive plays, resulting in a percentage of opportunity.  For QBs, we add their number of pass attempts into the mix.  We want to target players who are projecting to get a lot of opportunities, so I hope this helps you with your 2021 Draft Prep and beyond!  You can check out my projected 2021 Opportunity Shares here when they are ready.

The goal of this study is to review the rules from 2019 and compare them to the numbers we found from 2020 to help us establish new thresholds for predicting RB1s and RB2s.

Recap of 2019 Study:

1st Threshold (RB1s) = 217+ carries and 44+ targets

2nd Threshold (RB1s) = 250+ carries

3rd Threshold (RB2s w/ upside) = 200+ rushing attempts and 25+ targets

4th Threshold (PPR Backs) = 80+ targets

5th Threshold (Strong RB2s with upside) = 160+ rushing attempts and 55+ targets

Rule 1: Any RB with 30%+ opportunity share is likely an RB1.

Rule 2: Any RB with 22%+ opportunity share is likely an RB2 at worst.

* Please be aware that whatever happened in the previous season is no indication as to how the next one will go.  These are simply stats and observations from 2020 that may help us this year and beyond. Scroll to the bottom for the new 2021 rules.

RBs     WRs     TEs

RBs: 1-12

Team Player RuAtt Targets Combined Opp. Share PPR
TEN Derrick Henry 378 31 409 40.66% 3
MIN Dalvin Cook 312 54 366 37.20% 2
JAX James Robinson 240 60 300 32.15% 7
LV Josh Jacobs 273 45 318 31.55% 8
CHI David Montgomery 247 68 315 31.28% 4
DAL Ezekiel Elliott 244 71 315 29.47% 9
NO Alvin Kamara 187 107 294 28.94% 1
GB Aaron Jones 201 63 264 27.24% 5
IND Jonathan Taylor 232 39 271 26.81% 6
DEN Melvin Gordon 215 44 259 25.95% 14
ARI Kenyan Drake 239 31 270 25.62% 15
CLE Kareem Hunt 198 51 249 25.00% 10

10 of the top 12 RBs in final PPR Rankings finished in the top 12 of RB opportunity share. Mike Davis (RB12) just missed the cut, finishing 13th in Opp. Share and Nick Chubb (RB11) finished 21st in Opp. Share. In 2019, we had 9/12, so this idea of higher opportunity share equaling an RB1 gains strength.

5 RBs finished with an opportunity share greater than 30%, with all 5 of them finishing RB8 or better.

Target elite RB1s projected over 30% opportunity share.

The top 6 RBs in Opp. Share all had 240+ carries and finished no worse than RB9. Don’t be afraid to target these RBs in PPR formats.

Target elite RB1s projected 240+ carries.

Of the 12 RBs above, only Alvin Kamara (187) and Kareem Hunt (198) were under 200 carries.  Only 10 RBs finished with 200+ carries in 2020 and they all finished RB15 or better in PPR formats.

Target RB1s projected 200+ carries.

One of the biggest things all 12 RBs above have in common is that when you add up their total rushing attempts and targets, they are all over 250+ (Kareem Hunt had 249, so close enough).  None of the RBs listed in the charts below go over this 250+ number.  Mike Davis (235), Ronald Jones (234) and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (235) were the next closest.

Target RB1s projected 250+ total rushing attempts + targets.

 RBs: 13-24

Team Player RuAtt Targets Combined Opp. Share PPR
CAR Mike Davis 165 70 235 24.56% 12
TB Ronald Jones 192 42 234 23.73% 20
NYJ Frank Gore 187 19 206 22.76% 45
KC Clyde Edwards-Helaire 181 54 235 22.75% 22
ATL Todd Gurley 195 35 230 22.18% 29
HOU David Johnson 147 46 193 21.73% 21
PHI Miles Sanders 164 52 216 21.58% 24
WAS Antonio Gibson 170 44 214 21.40% 13
CLE Nick Chubb 190 18 208 20.88% 11
PIT James Conner 169 43 212 20.60% 26
BUF Devin Singletary 156 50 206 20.46% 31
WAS JD McKissic 85 110 195 19.50% 16

Of the top 24 RBs in Opp. Share last year, only 4 of them finished outside of the top 24 in final PPR points: Gore (45), Gurley (29), Conner (26) and Singletary (31).

All of the RBs in this 13-24 range of Opp. Share finished above 200+ total carries + targets besides JD McKissic (195, close enough) and David Johnson (193).  No other players listed below go over 200+; Carson (187) and Gaskin (189) were the next closest.

Target RB2s projected 200+ total carries + targets.

RBs: 25-48 

Team Player RuAtt Targets Combined Opp. Share PPR
SEA Chris Carson 141 46 187 19.20% 19
MIA Myles Gaskin 142 47 189 19.15% 28
NYG Wayne Gallman 147 27 174 19.00% 33
CIN Giovani Bernard 124 59 183 18.45% 30
DET Adrian Peterson 156 18 174 18.34% 39
DET D’Andre Swift 114 57 171 18.02% 18
NO Latavius Murray 146 26 172 16.93% 34
LAC Austin Ekeler 116 65 181 16.56% 25
BAL JK Dobbins 134 24 158 16.44% 27
BAL Gus Edwards 144 13 157 16.34% 37
IND Nyheim Hines 89 76 165 16.32% 17
GB Jamaal Williams 119 35 154 15.89% 40
ARI Chase Edmonds 97 67 164 15.56% 23
SF Jeff Wilson 126 28 154 15.29% 32
NE Damien Harris 137 7 144 15.29% 52
LAR Darrell Henderson 138 24 162 15.24% 36
LAR Cam Akers 145 14 159 14.96% 46
CIN Joe Mixon 119 26 145 14.62% 49
TB Leonard Fournette 97 47 144 14.60% 35
DEN Phillip Lindsay 118 14 132 13.23% 65
DAL Tony Pollard 101 40 141 13.19% 41
BUF Zack Moss 112 18 130 12.91% 48
HOU Duke Johnson 77 35 112 12.61% 57
SF Jerick McKinnon 81 46 127 12.61% 38

Type more stuff later…

 

2021 RB Rules:

Target elite RB1s projected over 30% opportunity share.

Target elite RB1s projected 240+ carries.

Target RB1s projected 200+ carries. (solid RB2 floor)

Target RB1s projected 250+ total rushing attempts + targets.

Target RB2s projected 200+ total carries + targets.

Thanks for reading!

– Kyle (@theFellowKGB)