Yard share is the total amount of yards a player gained divided by the total number of yards gained by their offense.
The resulting % gives us a great idea at how useful a player is within their offense and how much the team relies on them to move the ball. I looked at Opportunity Share earlier and you can find those results here, but Yard Share is a new stat I’ve been tracking and it seems to have a stronger correlation to how good a player really is. Opportunity for carries and targets are great, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that the player is great. We want players who can rack up yards as well as opportunities. What they do with their opportunities is what separates an OK player from a Great player, so yard share is a great way to identify these players.
Top 12 WRs in Yard Share (2019)
All of the top 12 WRs in yard share were above 20% and all of them were over 1,000 yards. This is a strong indicator for potential WR1s.
8 of the top 12 WRs in yard share finished as WR1s in 2019.
The outliers in the top 12 are Courtland Sutton (WR19), DJ Moore (WR15), Stefon Diggs (WR20) and Robert Woods (WR14).
WRs 13-24 in Yard Share (2019)
Target WRs with projected 17%+ yard share and over 1,000 yards.
21 of the top 24 WRs in yard share finished as WR2s or better in 2019.
The outliers are Terry McLaurin (WR29), Odell Beckham Jr. (WR25) and Jamison Crowder (WR26).
All of the top 24 WRs in yard share finished with 17%+ in yard share.
Only 3 of these top 24 failed to reach 1,000 yards.
WRs 25-36 in Yard Share (2019)
This range of WRs is where it gets a little muddy.
32 of the top 36 WRs in yard share finished as WR3s or better.
Amari Cooper (WR10), Tyler Lockett (WR13) and Michael Gallup (WR24) are the missing WRs from the top 24 in PPR last year that did not make the first two charts. They are in strong running offenses and have multiple threats at receiver, resulting in their lower percentage.
The bar for a WR24 or above is at 15.69% (Gallup). Any WR over that percentage was a WR1 or 2.
Only Odell Beckham Jr. (WR25) and Mike Williams (WR39) failed to finish as a WR2 or better with over 1,000yds.
Target WRs who are projecting roughly 15% yard share and can approach 1,000yds.
In the studies below, I selected the top 4 players from each team in Yard Share %.
Looking at the scatterplot chart above, players who are higher up and farther to the right are the ones we are hoping to draft. The higher up they are, the better the offense. The farther right they are, the more yards they accounted for within their offense.
The chart above shows the yard share % distribution for each position. If you can, envision your draft picks in four distinct buckets; early round picks, early mid-round picks, late mid-round picks, and late round picks. This chart breaks out the four distinct buckets, also known as quartiles, of player yard share %. The further right the quartile, the earlier players in that quartile should be targeted in drafts.
These dual axis charts demonstrate the total amount of team yards by the bar length and darkness along with the total number of player yards by the dot. The players are sorted by their yard % in order to illustrate how total yards gained by a player and the yard % of a player can tell different stories. Breaking these charts out by position allows us to see how much each player was relied on based on their team’s yardage output.
I’ll be using Yard Share % as a tool for my drafts in 2020 and I highly recommend you do as well. In tandem with Yard Share %, my 2019 Opportunity Report offers some useful knowledge on how carries and targets correlate to PPR finishes. Link to 2019 Opportunity Report.
You can find my 2020 Projected Yard Share’s here.
Thanks for reading!
(data visualization courtesy of @jkheffernon)
Use my best ball promo code for Drafters.com!
or click here
You will receive a 50% deposit match bonus!