aThis article is all about opportunity shares from the 2019 season. (by @theFellowKGB)
Opportunity share is the number of rushing attempts and targets a player gets divided by the total number of a team’s offensive plays, resulting in a percentage of opportunity. For QBs, we add their number of pass attempts into the mix. We want to target players who are projecting to get a lot of opportunities, so I hope this helps you with your 2020 Draft Prep and beyond! You can check out my projected 2020 Opportunity Shares here.
* The finishes listed on the far right columns are in PPR formats.
* Please be aware that whatever happened in the previous season is no indication as to how the next one will go. These are simply stats and observations from 2019 that may help us this year and beyond.
The 12 TEs listed above all finished within the top 13 in PPR. This suggests that we need to strongly consider opportunity share when searching for our TE1s.
As you can see, there is a very clear correlation to a TEs opportunity share and where he finishes in PPR formats. Continue drafting TEs who will be looking to earn 80+ targets, as this number seems to be the cut off point for projecting TE1s.
The top 12 TE’s in opportunity % last year were all above 7.89%, with all 12 of them finishing in the top 13 in final PPR rankings. This percentage suggests that we should be looking for TE’s with the potential to be at 8.00% or above.
At the top of the list, the top 6 TEs in targets all finished in the top 6 of opportunity share.
Zach Ertz sticks out to me as TE4 and a higher opportunity share than Waller (TE2) and Kittle (TE3). He had more opportunities and finished behind both guys, suggesting that he is less efficient than both.
After the Top 6 TEs, we have a mix of TEs with a finish rank between 8-13. Mike Gesicki earned the 7th best opportunity share yet finished 12th overall in PPR. His efficiency has never been off the charts but we definitely need to listen to his volume going forward.
We see Dallas Goedert at 9th best in opportunities, finishing as the TE10, and Hunter Henry 12th in opportunities, finishing as the TE9. I grouped these two together because of their ages both being 25 and entering their prime career breakout season ranges. The best is yet to come from both guys.
Older TEs Greg Olsen and Jason Witten fell into the Top 12 in opportunities with Witten finishing as TE11 and Olsen just outside the Top 12 at TE13. Both guys left their respective teams and should open up their TE1 spots to some of the new, younger TEs, especially Ian Thomas and Blake Jarwin.
Jared Cook (TE7) and Hunter Henry (TE9) are the only TE1s to finish with less than 80 targets. Both of these guys excelled in yards per catch and TDs.
Evan Engram just missed the top list in opportunity shares to do injury. When he’s playing, he is a TE1.
Noah Fant also just missed the top 12 list in opportunity share, but ranks 13th and finished as the TE14 last year. He’ll be a fringe TE1 in 2020.
Jonnu Smith benefitted from the absence of Delanie Walker, who missed the last 10 games of 2019. Smith is low on this list, but should be much higher next year we Walker unsigned.
Target TEs who project to get 80+ targets.
Target TEs above 8.00% opportunity share.
Thanks for reading!
– Kyle (@theFellowKGB)
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