2019 Opportunity Report WRs

This article is all about opportunity shares from the 2019 season. (by @theFellowKGB)

Opportunity share is the number of rushing attempts and targets a player gets divided by the total number of a team’s offensive plays, resulting in a percentage of opportunity.  For QBs, we add their number of pass attempts into the mix.  We want to target players who are projecting to get a lot of opportunities, so I hope this helps you with your 2020 Draft Prep and beyond!  You can check out my projected 2020 Opportunity Shares here.

* The finishes listed on the far right columns are in PPR formats.
* Please be aware that whatever happened in the previous season is no indication as to how the next one will go.  These are simply stats and observations from 2019 that may help us this year and beyond.

QBs     RBs     WRs     TEs

WRs: 1-12

Team Player RuAtt Targets Opp. Share Finish
NO Thomas 1 185 18.86% WR1
HOU Hopkins 2 150 15.91% WR5
CHI Robinson 1 154 15.90% WR7
LAC Allen 3 149 15.78% WR6
NE Edelman 8 153 15.28% WR8
ATL Jones 2 157 15.20% WR3
CIN Boyd 4 148 15.18% WR17
LAR Woods 17 139 15.10% WR14
CLE Landry 1 138 14.91% WR12
CLE Beckham 3 133 14.81% WR25
DEN Sutton 3 124 14.02% WR19
CAR Moore 6 135 13.84% WR15

Notes:

7 of the 12 WRs above finished in the top 12 as WR1s, with the top 6 in opportunity % all finishing within the top 8 in PPR.

All 5 WRs with more than 150 targets, (Thomas 185, Jones 157, Robinson 154, Edelman 153 and Hopkins 150) finished within the top 8 in PPR.

Keenan Allen just missed with 149 targets (WR6), as well as Tyler Boyd at 148 targets (WR17).

Stud WR1s require roughly 150+ targets and over 15% opportunity share.

Tyler Boyd (5), Robert Woods (2), DJ Moore (4) and Odell Beckham Jr. (4) all finished with 5 TDs or less, resulting in their lower PPR finish.

Only Odell Beckham failed to finish as a WR2, just missing at WR25.

All 12 of the WRs above were given at least one rushing attempt and over 124 targets.

We should target WR1s who are projected over 125 targets and rush attempts with 6+ TDs. Every WR with 125+ opportunities finished above WR25.

WRs: 13-24

Team Player RuAtt Targets Opp. Share Finish
NYJ Crowder 1 122 13.61% WR26
MIA Parker 128 13.28% WR11
LAR Kupp 2 134 13.26% WR4
GB Adams 127 12.91% WR23
ARI Kirk 10 107 12.66% WR38
JAX Chark 2 118 12.27% WR18
CAR Samuel 19 105 12.17% WR36
DET Golladay 116 12.16% WR9
BUF Brown 2 115 12.07% WR22
ARI Fitzgerald 109 11.80% WR35
TB Godwin 1 121 11.74% WR2
DAL Cooper 1 119 11.47% WR10

More Notes:

All of the 24 WRs above except Christian Kirk (WR38) finished as a WR3 or better.

Larry Fitzgerald (WR35) had the fewest opportunities with 109.

Target WR2/3s with roughly 110+ opportunities.  The closer they are to our 125 mark from above, the likelier they are to be WR2s.

Only Stefon Diggs (99) and AJ Brown (87) finished as WR2s with under 100 total opportunities.  Brown had 8 TDs, Diggs had 6.

Of the WR3 group (WRs 25-36), the fewest amount of opportunities was 93 by Marvin Jones (WR28) and Terry McLaurin (WR29)

Only 2 players failed to crack the Top 36  with more than 100 opportunities in Christian Kirk (118) and Dede Westbrook (106).

Target WR3s with roughly 95+ projected opportunities.  WRs over 10% opportunity share are likely to be WR3s or better. Only 4 of 36 finished under 10%.

WRs: 25-50

Team Player RuAtt Targets Opp. Share Finish
SEA Lockett 4 110 11.42% WR13
TB Evans 118 11.36% WR16
WAS McLaurin 93 11.14% WR29
BUF Beasley 106 10.84% WR34
JAX Westbrook 5 101 10.84% WR45
DAL Gallup 113 10.80% WR24
NYJ Anderson 1 96 10.73% WR41
MIN Diggs 5 94 10.62% WR20
PIT Johnson 4 92 10.61% WR40
KC Hill 8 89 10.40% WR32
DET Amendola 97 10.27% WR51
SEA Metcalf 2 100 10.22% WR30
KC Watkins 2 90 9.86% WR49
DET M Jones 2 91 9.75% WR28
TEN Brown 3 84 9.74% WR21
SF Samuel 14 81 9.73% WR31
LAC M Williams 1 90 9.45% WR39
NYG S. Shepard 6 83 9.37% WR48
JAX Conley 90 9.20% WR43
ATL Ridley 2 93 9.08% WR27
NYG Tate 1 85 9.05% WR44
NYG Slayton 84 8.84% WR37
PIT Washington 80 8.84% WR52
CHI Miller 1 85 8.82% WR56
CIN Erickson 5 78 8.39% WR72
DAL Cobb 3 83 8.32% WR42

Recap:

Stud WR1s require roughly 150+ targets and over 15% opportunity share.

Target WR1s who are projected over 125 targets and rush attempts with 6+ TDs.  Every WR with 125+ opportunities finished above WR25.

Target WR2/3s with roughly 110+ opportunities.  The closer they are to our 125 mark from above, the likelier they are to be WR2s.

Target WR3s with roughly 95+ projected opportunities.  WRs over 10% opportunity share are likely to be WR3s or better.  Only 4 of 36 finished under 10%.

 

Thanks for reading!

– Kyle (@theFellowKGB)

 

I’ll be using Opportunity Share % as a tool for my drafts in 2020 in tandem with Yard Share %.  Check out my  2019 Yard Share % article and Projected 2020 Yard Share %.

 

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