This article is all about opportunity shares from the 2019 season. (by @theFellowKGB)
Opportunity share is the number of rushing attempts and targets a player gets divided by the total number of a team’s offensive plays, resulting in a percentage of opportunity. For QBs, we add their number of pass attempts into the mix. We want to target players who are projecting to get a lot of opportunities, so I hope this helps you with your 2020 Draft Prep and beyond! You can check out my projected 2020 Opportunity Shares here.
* The finishes listed on the far right columns are in PPR formats.
* Please be aware that whatever happened in the previous season is no indication as to how the next one will go. These are simply stats and observations from 2019 that may help us this year and beyond.
9 of the top 12 RBs in final PPR Rankings finished in the top 12 of RB opportunity share. Joe Mixon just missed the cut as RB13, so almost 10/12.
11 RBs finished with an opportunity share greater than 30%, with 9 of them finishing in the top 12 in final PPR points. Target RBs over 30%.
Le’Veon Bell had the 5th best opportunity % but finished 16th in PPR; Joe Mixon was 9th in opportunity % and finished 13th; Phillip Lindsay (29.79%) was 12th in opportunity % and finished 20th.
Derrick Henry was the only RB in the top 12 of opportunity share to finish below 44 targets with just 24. Mark Ingram (below) would join Henry as the only other RB1 to finish with less than 44 targets.
All of the top 12 RBs in opportunity share were given at least 217 rushing attempts.
Based on these numbers, we should be targeting RB1s who have the potential to reach 217+ carries and 44+ targets. This is our 1st threshold and it produces RB1s . There will be a few outliers such as Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara and Austin Ekeler, but every player that hit this criteria last year finished as an RB1 besides Todd Gurley (RB14).
Of the 8 RBs with 250+ rushing attempts last year, only Mixon (RB13) was unable to finish as an RB1. If we are projecting a player to have more than 250 carries, they are very likely to finish as an RB1, regardless of target volume. (cough, Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, Nick Chubb, cough). This is our 2nd threshold.
Of the top 24 RBs in opportunity % last year, only 3 of them finished outside of the top 24 in final PPR points: Hyde (RB28), Michel (RB31) and Peterson (RB32).
20 RBs had more than 200+ carries in 2019. Only 3 of them finished outside of the top 24 in PPR: Hyde(RB28), Michel (RB31) and Peterson (RB32). None of these 3 had more than 24 targets.
Target RBs projected with 200+ rushing attempts and 25+ targets. This 3rd threshold produces our RB2s with upside.
Alvin Kamara and Austin Ekeler were among the league’s best RBs in total targets last year. Kamara actually had 39 more carries, but the biggest difference between the two in 2019 was TDs.
Only 6 RBs had 80+ targets last year: McCaffrey (142), Ekeler (108), Cohen (104), Fournette (100), Kamara (97) and James White (95).
They finished as: McCaffrey (RB1), Ekeler RB4, Fournette (RB7), Kamara (RB9), White (RB19) and Cohen (RB27)
Target RBs with 80+ projected targets. This 4th threshold can produce both RB1s and RB2s.
Let’s exclude the 3 RBs with 80+ targets but less than 200 carries from this next bit, specifically Ekeler, White and Cohen due to their lack of carries.
We are now looking for the guys who fall in-between our last two thresholds. Guys who might not get 200+ carries or 80+ targets, but get enough work in both phases to finish as RB2s and above.
The 3 RBs who stick out in this final threshold are Miles Sanders (RB15), Devonta Freeman (RB18) and Melvin Gordon (RB22). None of them had 200+ carries or 80+ targets, yet they all finished as RB2s in PPR. These three guys all had more than 162 carries and 55 targets, giving us our 5th threshold of roughly 160+ rushing attempts and 55+ targets.
* Kenyan Drake’s 2019 numbers are skewed because he was on 2 different teams. His stats above are from his games in Arizona. He finished 2019 with 170 carries for 817yds and 8TDs, 50 receptions on 68 targets for 345yds. He would fall into our 5th threshold.
James White is the only RB to finish in the top 24 in PPR points with an opportunity share under 22%. Target RBs over 22%.
Marlon Mack is the only RB from last year who meets none of these thresholds besides an opportunity share above 22.00%. He had 247 rush attempts though, just barely missing out on our 250 mark.
1st Threshold (RB1s) = 217+ carries and 44+ targets
2nd Threshold (RB1s) = 250+ carries
3rd Threshold (RB2s w/ upside) = 200+ rushing attempts and 25+ targets
4th Threshold (PPR Backs) = 80+ targets
5th Threshold (Strong RB2s with upside) = 160+ rushing attempts and 55+ targets
Any RB with 30%+ opportunity share is likely an RB1.
Any RB with 22%+ opportunity share is likely an RB2 at worst.
Thanks for reading!
– Kyle (@theFellowKGB)
Use my best ball promo code for Drafters.com!
or click here
You will receive a 50% deposit match bonus!