2019 Opportunity Report RBs

This article is all about opportunity shares from the 2019 season. (by @theFellowKGB)

Opportunity share is the number of rushing attempts and targets a player gets divided by the total number of a team’s offensive plays, resulting in a percentage of opportunity.  For QBs, we add their number of pass attempts into the mix.  We want to target players who are projecting to get a lot of opportunities, so I hope this helps you with your 2020 Draft Prep and beyond!  You can check out my projected 2020 Opportunity Shares here.

* The finishes listed on the far right columns are in PPR formats.
* Please be aware that whatever happened in the previous season is no indication as to how the next one will go.  These are simply stats and observations from 2019 that may help us this year and beyond.

QBs     RBs     WRs     TEs

RBs: 1-12

Team Player RuAtt Targets Opp. Share Finish
CAR McCaffrey 287 142 42.30% RB1
JAX Fournette 265 100 37.32% RB7
CLE Chubb 298 49 37.23% RB8
TEN Henry 303 24 36.62% RB5
NYJ Bell 245 78 35.73% RB16
DAL Elliott 301 71 35.56% RB3
MIN Cook 250 63 33.23% RB6
SEA Carson 278 47 32.57% RB12
CIN Mixon 278 45 32.27% RB13
GB Jones 236 68 30.89% RB2
NYG Barkley 217 73 30.53% RB10
DEN Lindsay 224 48 29.79% RB20

Notes:

9 of the top 12 RBs in final PPR Rankings finished in the top 12 of RB opportunity share. Joe Mixon just missed the cut as RB13, so almost 10/12.

11 RBs finished with an opportunity share greater than 30%, with 9 of them finishing in the top 12 in final PPR points. Target RBs over 30%.

Le’Veon Bell had the 5th best opportunity % but finished 16th in PPR; Joe Mixon was 9th in opportunity % and finished 13th; Phillip Lindsay (29.79%) was 12th in opportunity % and finished 20th.

Derrick Henry was the only RB in the top 12 of opportunity share to finish below 44 targets with just 24.  Mark Ingram (below) would join Henry as the only other RB1 to finish with less than 44 targets.

All of the top 12 RBs in opportunity share were given at least 217 rushing attempts.

Based on these numbers, we should be targeting RB1s who have the potential to reach 217+ carries and 44+ targetsThis is our 1st threshold and it produces RB1s . There will be a few outliers such as Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara and Austin Ekeler, but every player that hit this criteria last year finished as an RB1 besides Todd Gurley (RB14).

Of the 8 RBs with 250+ rushing attempts last year, only Mixon (RB13) was unable to finish as an RB1.  If we are projecting a player to have more than 250 carries, they are very likely to finish as an RB1, regardless of target volume. (cough, Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, Nick Chubb, cough).  This is our 2nd threshold.

 RBs: 13-24

Team Player RuAtt Targets Opp. Share Finish
CHI Montgomery 242 35 28.41% RB24
WAS Peterson 211 23 28.02% RB32
LV Jacobs 242 27 28.02% RB21
NO Kamara 171 97 27.28% RB9
HOU Hyde 245 16 26.96% RB28
IND Mack 247 17 26.83% RB23
LAR Gurley 223 49 26.33% RB14
NE Michel 247 20 25.02% RB31
LAC Ekeler 132 108 24.92% RB4
ATL Freeman 184 70 24.28% RB18
PHI Sanders 179 63 22.68% RB15
LAC Gordon 162 55 22.53% RB22

More notes:

Of the top 24 RBs in opportunity % last year, only 3 of them finished outside of the top 24 in final PPR points: Hyde (RB28), Michel (RB31) and Peterson (RB32).

20 RBs had more than 200+ carries in 2019.  Only 3 of them finished outside of the top 24 in PPR: Hyde(RB28), Michel (RB31) and Peterson (RB32).  None of these 3 had more than 24 targets.

Target RBs projected with 200+ rushing attempts and 25+ targets. This 3rd threshold produces our RB2s with upside.

 

Alvin Kamara and Austin Ekeler were among the league’s best RBs in total targets last year.  Kamara actually had 39 more carries, but the biggest difference between the two in 2019 was TDs.

Only 6 RBs had 80+ targets last year: McCaffrey (142), Ekeler (108), Cohen (104), Fournette (100), Kamara (97) and James White (95).

They finished as: McCaffrey (RB1), Ekeler RB4, Fournette (RB7), Kamara (RB9), White (RB19) and Cohen (RB27)

Target RBs with 80+ projected targets.  This 4th threshold can produce both RB1s and RB2s.

 

Let’s exclude the 3 RBs with 80+ targets but less than 200 carries from this next bit, specifically Ekeler, White and Cohen due to their lack of carries.

We are now looking for the guys who fall in-between our last two thresholds.  Guys who might not get 200+ carries or 80+ targets, but get enough work in both phases to finish as RB2s and above.

The 3 RBs who stick out in this final threshold are Miles Sanders (RB15), Devonta Freeman (RB18) and Melvin Gordon (RB22).  None of them had 200+ carries or 80+ targets, yet they all finished as RB2s in PPR.  These three guys all had more than 162 carries and 55 targets, giving us our 5th threshold of roughly 160+ rushing attempts and 55+ targets.

* Kenyan Drake’s 2019 numbers are skewed because he was on 2 different teams.  His stats above are from his games in Arizona.  He finished 2019 with 170 carries for 817yds and 8TDs, 50 receptions on 68 targets for 345yds.  He would fall into our 5th threshold.

James White is the only RB to finish in the top 24 in PPR points with an opportunity share under 22%.  Target RBs over 22%.

Marlon Mack is the only RB from last year who meets none of these thresholds besides an opportunity share above 22.00%.  He had 247 rush attempts though, just barely missing out on our 250 mark.

RBs: 25-50 

Team Player RuAtt Targets Opp. Share Finish
BAL Ingram 202 29 22.30% RB11
TB Jones 172 40 20.40% RB25
DEN Freeman 132 50 19.93% RB38
BUF Singletary 151 41 19.63% RB33
NO Murray 146 43 19.17% RB29
BUF Gore 166 16 18.61% RB50
CHI Cohen 64 104 17.23% RB27
TB Barber 154 24 17.13% RB42
SF Coleman 137 30 17.11% RB39
ARI Drake 123 35 17.10% RB17
PIT Conner 116 38 17.02% RB34
SF Mostert 137 22 16.29% RB26
KC Dam. Williams 111 37 15.86% RB37
LV Washington 108 41 15.52% RB41
GB J Williams 107 45 15.45% RB35
NE White 67 95 15.28% RB19
ARI Johnson 94 47 15.26% RB36
HOU Johnson 83 62 14.98% RB30
SF Breida 123 22 14.86% RB46
KC McCoy 101 34 14.47% RB40
PIT Samuels 66 57 14.14% RB45
BAL Edwards 133 7 13.51% RB51
DET K Johnson 113 15 13.42% RB54
PHI Howard 119 14 12.46% RB43
PIT Snell 108 4 12.38% RB67
MIN Mattison 100 12 11.89% RB61

Recap:

1st Threshold (RB1s) = 217+ carries and 44+ targets

2nd Threshold (RB1s) = 250+ carries

3rd Threshold (RB2s w/ upside) = 200+ rushing attempts and 25+ targets

4th Threshold (PPR Backs) = 80+ targets

5th Threshold (Strong RB2s with upside) = 160+ rushing attempts and 55+ targets

Any RB with 30%+ opportunity share is likely an RB1.

Any RB with 22%+ opportunity share is likely an RB2 at worst.

Thanks for reading!

– Kyle (@theFellowKGB)

 

I’ll be using Opportunity Share % as a tool for my drafts in 2020 in tandem with Yard Share %.  Check out my  2019 Yard Share % article and Projected 2020 Yard Share %.

 

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